Houston @ Boston picks

The Boston Red Sox have been a different team at home, going 34-21 at Fenway Park this year. Outside of Coors Field, Fenway is the best offensive ballpark in the majors, and that has allowed the Red Sox to beat up on opposing pitchers, scoring 5.25 runs per game at home. Boston will have a great opportunity to add to that number tonight, as they take on Hunter Brown. The Houston Astros starter was having an outstanding year through June before things seemingly went sideways in July. Over his last five starts, Brown has a 5.54 ERA, going only 26 total innings in those outings while the Astros went 2-3 in those games. I’m taking the Red Sox to win as an underdog tonight.

This one is going to move. THE BAT has him projected for a near-full leash at 86 pitches and 3.44 Ks today vs. a navigable offense. He just got the promotion from Triple-A, where he has been going 15 outs consistently and has 55 Ks over 53-plus innings. That K/inning rate might not play with the big club, but he does have 104 Ks in 137 big-league innings entering this year. It’s a low-risk price with a small total and a pitcher who could go 15 outs. 

When assessing his home run talent, Trevor Story ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Trevor Story has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Considering Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jesus Sanchez will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Jesus Sanchez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Victor Caratini has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 103.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 93.1-mph.. Last year, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 14°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. The 2nd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park.. Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage against Cooper Criswell today... and moreover, Criswell has a large platoon split.. Taylor Trammell has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (28.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cooper Criswell has a pitch-to-contact profile (15th percentile K%) — great news for Trammell.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge today.. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball bats like Wilyer Abreu are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Victor Caratini has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 103.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 93.1-mph.. Last year, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 14°.

Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest fences in the majors.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. Hunter Brown will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Story today.. With a 5.86 K/BB rate this year, Trevor Story has shown bad plate discipline, placing in the 4th percentile.

Jacob Melton has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. The 2nd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park.. Because of Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jacob Melton will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Ranking in the 89th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.94 ft/sec this year, Jacob Melton is very toolsy.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz profiles as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 park in the majors for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Hunter Brown in today's matchup.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 7% less often this season (40%) than he did last year (47%).