Houston @ Arizona picks

Valdez has been the anchor for this Astros rotation, and he's given up more than two runs just once across his last 9 starts. The one bad start he did have came against the stacked Dodgers, and these Diamondbacks are not that. For as good as Valdez has been on the road, he's holding hitters to a collective .224 average with a 1.18 WHIP. As for E-Rod, he's been smacked around pretty good over his last two starts, 8 1/3 innings, 20 hits, 12 runs, five home runs. He's not the same guy we saw a few years back for the Tigers, or prior when he was a 19-game winner for the Red Sox in 2019. 

Jose Altuve is swinging it well, and Eduardo Rodriguez has trouble with the long ball. He’s surrendered 16 already, and opponents are hitting .311 overall. 

There’s some blow-up risk, but he’s fully rested, has a projected 100-pitch leash, and draws a favorable home matchup vs. the Astros. Hits allowed have been a concern, but he’s still 5-2 to the Over on his home mound and is projected for 92 pitches and 16.9 outs — suggesting he can go deep enough to cash. One way to manage the risk: split a unit between his Over 5.5 Ks and outs recorded. He’s projected for 6 strikeouts, and his swing-and-miss ability means he can burn pitches while still piling up Ks. I'm buying this to -120.

Chas McCormick has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which tends to lead to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Chas McCormick will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Christian Walker is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Christian Walker will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in baseball for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Corbin Carroll has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 7.3% rate last year to 15.5% this season.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in baseball for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Corbin Carroll has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 7.3% rate last year to 15.5% this season.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which tends to lead to better offense.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.. Victor Caratini has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.8-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which tends to lead to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Zack Short will have an edge today.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Christian Walker is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Christian Walker will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Christian Walker is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Christian Walker will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. The switch-hitting Cooper Hummel will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Eduardo Rodriguez.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.. Cooper Hummel has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .275 rate is quite a bit lower than his .304 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Mauricio Dubon is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which tends to lead to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have an advantage today.. Mauricio Dubon's launch angle recently (26.1° in the last two weeks) is significantly better than his 11.7° seasonal angle.