Boston @ Philadelphia picks
Citizens Bank Park
BOS vs PHI Picks
MLB Picks
Hits, Runs, and RBIs


Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Schwarber has teed off on righties to the tune of a .366 wOBA, .265 ISO and .855 OPS, and he’s up to 70 runs, 91 hits and 74 RBI for the campaign. This should prove to be a favorable pitching matchup, too. Boston righty Walker Buehler has surrendered a .324 batting average and .386 wOBA to left-handed hitters, after all.
Total RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 4th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler today.
Total RBIs

Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best batter in the game.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge today.. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
Total RBIs

Otto Kemp o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Otto Kemp will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Otto Kemp is quite fast, grading out in the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.13 ft/sec this year.
Total Bases

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Bases (-175)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 4th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ceddanne Rafaela o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-170)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Out of every team in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. Compared to last season, Ceddanne Rafaela has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.5% to 19.6% this season.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Trevor Story o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-170)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Out of every team in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Roman Anthony o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+135)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Roman Anthony's BABIP skill is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Roman Anthony will have an edge today.. Roman Anthony has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Marcelo Mayer o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 83°.. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have an edge in today's game.. Marcelo Mayer has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of every team in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.