Chicago @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Christopher Morel will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Christopher Morel has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.3% rate last year to 15.5% this season. Christopher Morel has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year's 89.1-mph figure.

Hitting from the same side that Sean Burke throws from, Yandy Diaz encounters a tough challenge today. Compared to his seasonal figure of 5.7°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-11°) in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Andrew Benintendi will hold the platoon advantage against Shane Baz today. Andrew Benintendi has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, improving his 6.3% rate last year to 12.2% this season.

Chandler Simpson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Chandler Simpson's 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 0th percentile this year.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lenyn Sosa has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Lenyn Sosa's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (17.2°) is significantly better than his 10.9° figure last season. Lenyn Sosa has recorded a .333 BABIP this year, placing in the 89th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme flyball bats like Miguel Vargas generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz. Despite posting a .306 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Miguel Vargas has suffered from bad luck given the .025 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Taylor Walls will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 15.8% to 20.4%. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 20.4% on the season to 27.8% over the last 14 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.284) suggests that Taylor Walls has suffered from bad luck this year with his .257 actual wOBA.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). This season, Brooks Baldwin has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.9 mph compared to last year's 90.6 mph mark. In terms of his batting average, Brooks Baldwin has been unlucky this year. His .226 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240. Brooks Baldwin is quite athletic, grading out in the 90th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.96 ft/sec this year.

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme flyball hitters like Junior Caminero generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Sean Burke. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jake Mangum's BABIP talent is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme groundball bats like Jake Mangum usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Burke. Jake Mangum will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Placing in the 97th percentile, Jake Mangum has put up a .298 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Luis Robert Jr.'s launch angle this season (18.9°) is considerably better than his 13.1° mark last year. Compared to his seasonal angle of 19.7°, Luis Robert Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (12°) in the last two weeks. Despite posting a .277 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Luis Robert Jr. has had bad variance on his side given the .041 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Sean Burke in today's game. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Mike Tauchman is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Mike Tauchman will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's game. Mike Tauchman has compiled a .365 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 88th percentile. Mike Tauchman has put up a .288 batting average this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Sean Burke throws from, Matt Thaiss will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Matt Thaiss will hold that advantage today. When it comes to plate discipline, Matt Thaiss's ability is quite impressive, posting a 1.56 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 88th percentile.

Chase Meidroth is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Chase Meidroth has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Chase Meidroth has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .283 mark is a good deal lower than his .297 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Chase Meidroth has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, placing in the 90th percentile with a 1.39 K/BB rate.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Ha-seong Kim will hold that advantage in today's game. Ha-seong Kim has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 86.1-mph EV. Over the last 7 days, Ha-seong Kim's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%. In terms of his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .233 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.

Kyle Teel's BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Teel is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Teel will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's matchup.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Colson Montgomery will have an edge in today's game. In the last two weeks, Colson Montgomery's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 26.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Danny Jansen will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Danny Jansen has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season's 90.5-mph figure. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.6°) is considerably better than his 21.6° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Sean Burke throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jonathan Aranda pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Josh Rojas will have an advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.206) implies that Josh Rojas has suffered from bad luck this year with his .177 actual batting average.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.