Texas @ Houston picks

With Hunter Brown flaunting an AL-best 2.21 ERA and Nathan Eovaldi subsequently surrendering a 1.008 OPS to Astros hitters, Houston will get the best of its AL West rivals on Sunday.

Later in the afternoon, the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers. Houston’s Jose Altuve homered in last night’s game and is worth backing to do so again Sunday against right-hander Nathan Eovaldi. Altuve has historically dominated Eovaldi, homering seven times through 58 plate appearances. He has posted a .727 slugging percentage and a .661 expected slugging percentage over that stretch.

Another Astros hitter to target in this matchup is Christian Walker. Like Altuve, Walker enters this contest in good form with two home runs over his past five games. Also like Altuve, Walker has crushed Eovaldi in the past. Through 14 plate appearances against the right-hander, Walker boasts a 1.182 slugging percentage with two home runs. Eovaldi has been sensational this year, which is why these odds are so long. That said, opponents are hitting the ball hard against him, as he ranks in the 39th percentile in average exit velocity.

Seager red hot, having posted splits of .390/.510/.732 in July. Last night ended a five-game multi-hit streak and marked just the third time in 11 games that he didn’t score a run. Hunter Brown won’t be an easy pitcher for him to get to, but Seager has had success against him. In 17 meetings, Seager is hitting .313 with a home run, two doubles, and four RBI while striking out just four times. And Brown has shown signs of regressing to the mean this month. In two July starts, he’s allowed 12 hits and walked four over 12 innings, and surrendered three home runs while seeing a dip in his strikeout numbers. Seager has the opposite-side advantage, in a hitter’s park with shallow fences, and is getting on base against RHP with high frequency. I’ll back him to get back on track here.

When estimating his home run ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.

Victor Caratini is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Checking in at the 79th percentile for power, Victor Caratini has paced 25.9 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Wyatt Langford pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Grading out in the 85th percentile for power, Wyatt Langford has hit 29.5 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

When assessing his home run talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Among all major league parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Ranking in the 75th percentile for power, Jake Burger has averaged 24.4 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Marcus Semien is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Marcus Semien pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Batters such as Marcus Semien with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Christian Walker will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the league.. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in the majors.. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Corey Seager will have an edge in today's game.. Corey Seager has averaged 27.8 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today.. Grading out in the 78th percentile for power, Jose Altuve has hit 25.9 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.. Clint Vondrak profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone today.. Among all major league parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Given that flyball batters have a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, Hunter Brown and his 49.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in this game facing 2 opposing GB batters.. Hunter Brown's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (59.6 compared to 53% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Evan Carter will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown today.