Texas @ Houston picks

McCullers is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor, as he ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Jack Leiter is 4-9 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Like McCullers, Leiter’s analytics this season are well below average.

Jose Altuve's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jose Altuve will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Cracking 3 home runs over the past week, Jose Altuve has been on fire lately.

Corey Seager projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for dingers.. Corey Seager will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. in today's matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corey Seager's true offensive ability to be a .379, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .020 disparity between that mark and his actual .359 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. There has been a significant improvement in Adolis Garcia's launch angle from last year's 14.8° to 19.8° this season.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.4) suggests that Adolis Garcia has had bad variance on his side this year with his 16.9 actual HR/600.

When estimating his home run skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. Jake Burger's launch angle this year (17.3°) is quite a bit higher than his 12.8° angle last season.. Despite posting a .285 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has experienced some negative variance given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.. Jake Burger has averaged 25.2 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 78th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Isaac Paredes will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Isaac Paredes has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.3-mph average to last season's 85-mph EV.. Compared to last year, Isaac Paredes has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 39.7% to 45.2% this season.

Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for dingers.. Taylor Trammell will hold the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Taylor Trammell will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Kyle Higashioka pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Kyle Higashioka tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr... Kyle Higashioka has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 10.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 16.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Evan Carter ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Evan Carter will hold the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. in today's matchup.. Evan Carter's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 16.7% to 20.4%.. With a .262 batting average this year, Evan Carter is ranked in the 76th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Josh Smith ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Josh Smith is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for dingers.. Batting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Josh Smith will have an advantage today.. Josh Smith has been hot of late, hitting his way to a .346 wOBA in the last 14 days.

Corey Seager projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for dingers.. Corey Seager will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. in today's matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corey Seager's true offensive ability to be a .379, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .020 disparity between that mark and his actual .359 wOBA.