The Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers in the opening matchup of this three-game series at Daikin Park. MLB odds list Houston as a -132 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Rangers vs. Astros prediction targets the total in this AL West matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, July 11.
Rangers vs Astros prediction
My Rangers vs Astros best bet: Over 8 (-114 at DraftKings)
Right-hander Lance McCullers takes the mound for the Houston Astros, and he should serve as a good fade candidate. After making his long-awaited return from injury this season, McCullers has failed to return to his 2022 form.
Through nine starts, the right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor, as he ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
The good news for McCullers is that he should receive plenty of run support. Entering this matchup, the Astros rank in the Top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage, and OPS.
That success is likely to continue against right-hander Jack Leiter, who gets the ball for the Texas Rangers. The 2021 No. 2 overall draft pick still has plenty of time to develop, but he has failed to live up to the hype thus far.
Through his first 24 big league appearances, Leiter is 4-9 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Like McCullers, Leiter’s analytics this season are poor, ranking in the 15th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Lance McCullers Under 4.5 strikeouts
Marcus Semien 2+ hits
Sticking with the theme of fading McCullers, he ranks in the lowest percentile in chase rate.
Another correlated outcome of fading McCullers and betting the Over in offensive production from Rangers hitters. A strong candidate in that department is Marcus Semien, who boasts a .391 batting average through 28 plate appearances against McCullers.
Rangers vs Astros odds
Rangers vs Astros live odds
Rangers vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +112 | Houston -132
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rangers vs Astros trend
There have been nine or more total runs scored in five of Houston’s past seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros.
How to watch Rangers vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, 7-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CW33, SCHN |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Jack Leiter (4-6, 4.32 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Lance McCullers Jr. (2-3, 5.82 ERA) |
Rangers vs Astros latest injuries
Rangers vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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