Tampa Bay @ Boston picks

With Taj Bradley and Walker Buehler both sporting ERAs north of 4.75 and each team ranking Top 10 in run pers game, expect no shortage of scoring at the notoriously hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Walker Buehler has a 6.25 ERA and has given up 15 home runs in 15 starts this season. All 11 of Jonathan Aranda's long balls have came against right-handed pitchers.

Aranda's breakout season continues with yet another hot streak. The Rays' first baseman is hitting .476 with a 1.265 OPS, including four extra-base hits and four RBIs over his last five games. He's also driven in at least one run in six of his last 12 games. Today, he faces off against Walker Buehler, who ranks in the Bottom 15% of MLB pitchers in xERA and xBA. 

Betting on Walker Buehler has been an up-and-down ride this year but with a projected pitch count of 90+ pitches and paying +130 to get an out in the sixth inning at home vs. the Rays, I’m biting. He went 21 outs on 97 pitches vs. the Mariners just five starts ago, had three straight rough turns, but went 100 pitches  and just two earned runs in his last game. At home, he has been a much better pitcher too with a 3.93 ERA over 36 innings vs. an 8.66 ERA on 35 innings on the road. It’s a great price for a home start and with a pitcher who could touch triple digits. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Christopher Morel as the league's 20th-best home run batter.. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in the league for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Christopher Morel has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.3% rate last year to 16.2% this season.. Christopher Morel has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season's 89.1-mph average.

When it comes to his home run talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in the league for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

In the league, the 2nd-tallest average fence height are at Fenway Park.. The weather report predicts the most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams today.. Considering that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Walker Buehler (44.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected lineup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Jake Mangum is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. In the league, the 2nd-tallest average fence height are at Fenway Park.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The weather report predicts the most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.