Philadelphia @ San Francisco picks
Oracle Park
PHI vs SF Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine

Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Runs

Pick made: one month ago

Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Trea Turner has a nice matchup to get back on track against Justin Verlander. The 42-year-old has looked his age this season, earning zero wins through 14 starts while posting a 4.84 ERA. Verlander primarily attacks right-handed hitters with four-seamers and sliders. Turner has hit both effectively this season, sporting a .333 average against fastballs and .286 average vs. sliders. Turner leads the Phillies in average and wOBA on the road when facing right-handed starters. He should be able to earn his way onto the basepaths, setting up some of the power hitters behind him to drive him home.
Strikeouts Thrown

Jesus Luzardo u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
Projection 5.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Oracle Park projects as the #28 field in the league for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. The San Francisco Giants have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Jesus Luzardo in this game, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.. Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jesus Luzardo today.. Jesus Luzardo has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.63 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.17 — a 0.47 K/9 discrepancy.
Total RBIs

Willy Adames o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Willy Adames is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Willy Adames will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.
Total RBIs

Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.
Total RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 4th-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage today.
Total RBIs

Max Kepler o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge in today's matchup.. Max Kepler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.
Total RBIs

J.T. Realmuto o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. J.T. Realmuto has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.
Total RBIs

Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Given Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Heliot Ramos will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Alec Bohm o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total Bases

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Bases (-155)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 4th-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Willy Adames o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Willy Adames is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Willy Adames will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.