Washington @ St. Louis Picks & Props

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Alec Burleson has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph dropping to 84.1-mph in the past week's worth of games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.316) implies that Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year with his .341 actual wOBA.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. James Wood has made big gains with his Barrel%, upping his 10.7% rate last season to 19.1% this year.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest fences in the league — generally bad for HRs. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Hitting from the same side that Jake Irvin throws from, Masyn Winn will be in a tough position today. Masyn Winn's 89.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 16th percentile this year.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Jake Irvin today. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's game. Lars Nootbaar's launch angle this year (18.1°) is quite a bit higher than his 5.9° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Brady House has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 94.9-mph in the past week.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Jake Irvin throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge today. Bats such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jake Irvin who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today. Nolan Gorman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 89-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Daylen Lile will have an edge today. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Daylen Lile has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .283 figure is deflated compared to his .329 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's game. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batting from the opposite that Jake Irvin throws from, Victor Scott II will have the upper hand in today's game. Victor Scott II will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Victor Scott II's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 94.4-mph lately. Victor Scott II's launch angle recently (35° in the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 12.4° seasonal mark. Victor Scott II has notched a .324 BABIP this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, CJ Abrams ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). CJ Abrams is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage over Sonny Gray in today's game. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.8°, CJ Abrams has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.4° figure in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Arenado usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Irvin. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. With a 1.52 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has shown strong plate discipline, grading out in the 87th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Willson Contreras has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 92.6-mph in the last two weeks. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.6°, Willson Contreras has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 25.7° figure over the last 14 days.

Josh Bell is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Josh Bell has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph figure. Josh Bell has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 95.4-mph. Josh Bell's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, going from 42.3% on the season to 72.7% over the last week.

Pedro Pages will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Pedro Pages's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.2% up to 12.5%. Pedro Pages's launch angle of late (21.8° over the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 15.4° seasonal angle.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Riley Adams has been unlucky this year, putting up a .196 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .088 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Jacob Young's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 87.5-mph now compared to just 85.4-mph then. Jacob Young has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.7-mph average over the last week to his seasonal mark of 89.2-mph. Jacob Young's launch angle recently (18.3° in the past 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 2.8° seasonal mark.