Colorado @ Boston Picks & Props

This year, Romy Gonzalez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 18% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Romy Gonzalez's true offensive ability to be a .319, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .373 wOBA. Romy Gonzalez has exhibited bad plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 9th percentile with a 4.8 K/BB rate.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. Trevor Story has recorded a .293 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Trevor Story and his 7.1° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 13th percentile, among the lowest in baseball this year. Sporting a 6.23 K/BB rate this year, Trevor Story has displayed weak plate discipline, grading out in the 4th percentile.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. Despite posting a .327 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ceddanne Rafaela has had some very good luck given the .019 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .308. Sporting a 4.09 K/BB rate this year, Ceddanne Rafaela has displayed bad plate discipline, placing in the 19th percentile.

Michael Toglia is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Fenway Park. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Tyler Freeman will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today's game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams in action today. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler Freeman today. Tyler Freeman's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 88.6-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 82.3-mph over the last 14 days.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Fenway Park. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Yanquiel Fernandez will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Ritter in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Ryan McMahon will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Ryan McMahon has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Roman Anthony can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Orlando Arcia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Mickey Moniak is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Mickey Moniak will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Mickey Moniak pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Thairo Estrada is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Thairo Estrada pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the past week, Thairo Estrada's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.5-mph over the course of the season to 92.7-mph lately.

Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Hunter Goodman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Hunter Goodman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Brenton Doyle hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.309) may lead us to conclude that Brenton Doyle has had some very poor luck this year with his .259 actual wOBA.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Abraham Toro will get to bat from his good side against Kyle Freeland today. Abraham Toro will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Connor Wong will have an advantage in today's matchup. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today.

Jordan Beck is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Jordan Beck pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Nate Eaton is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Nate Eaton will have the upper hand today. Nate Eaton hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate today. Carlos Narvaez will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Freeland today. Carlos Narvaez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.