Kansas City @ Arizona picks
Chase Field
KC vs AZ Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Witt has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last eight ballgames, while he’s one of eight players in the majors with 10+ hits over the past week. He’ll be facing Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson, who’s putting together a decent season with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The right-handed Witt has hit more consistently vs. left-handed pitching (.343 BA vs. LHP; .282 BA vs. RHP), but he’s shown more pop against righties with a .493 slugging percentage (.478 SLG vs. LHP). It should also help Witt’s case that the Diamondbacks own the third-worst bullpen ERA in the majors (5.18), so once he gets through Nelson, he’ll have an even easier time getting on base.
Total RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 10th-best batter in the majors.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for righty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. Bobby Witt Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 43.7% to 49.7%.
Total RBIs

Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 11th-best hitter in the majors.. Ketel Marte is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. Ketel Marte will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Salvador Perez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for righty batting average.. Salvador Perez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 103.5-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 91.9-mph.. Salvador Perez has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 15.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 30.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs

Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as the game's 16th-best home run hitter.. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for righty batting average.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Eugenio Suarez will hold that advantage today.. In the past week's worth of games, Eugenio Suarez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 95.1 mph to 87.2 mph.
Total RBIs

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for righty batting average.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game.. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 92.1-mph.. Compared to last year, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.1% to 18.7% this season.
Total RBIs

Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Jac Caglianone will have an advantage in today's game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Jac Caglianone usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.. Jac Caglianone's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 8.6% on the season to 25% in the last 7 days.
Total RBIs

Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today's game.. Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 92.6-mph.
Total Bases

Kyle Isbel o0.5 Total Bases (-125)
Projection 1.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. Kyle Isbel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson today.. Kyle Isbel has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph to 91.2-mph over the past 14 days.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Isbel o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. Kyle Isbel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson today.. Kyle Isbel has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph to 91.2-mph over the past 14 days.
Outs Recorded

Michael Wacha u17.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
Projection 16.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for batting average.. Given that groundball batters hold a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Michael Wacha and his 36.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today's outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.. Michael Wacha will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.. Michael Wacha's 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1-mph decline from last season's 93.6-mph figure.. Michael Wacha has gone to his change-up 6.2% less often this year (26.1%) than he did last season (32.3%).