Boston @ Washington picks

The Sox have been sliding down the AL East standings, but Story is trending in the exact opposite direction. The shortstop is fresh off a four-hit game against the Nationals on July 4, where he also recorded a home run, four RBI, and seven total bases. It’s been a scorching hot week at the plate for Story, who has recorded 2+ total bases in four straight and five of his last six outings. His 11 hits over the last week are also the second most in the majors behind only Jasson Dominguez of the Yankees, who has 12. It should be a favorable matchup this afternoon for Story and the Red Sox as well, as Mitchell Parker takes the mound for the Nats. The right-hander owns a bloated 4.63 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP while allowing 6+ hits in four straight starts.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, James Wood will have an edge today.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Washington Nationals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 8th-worst stadium in the majors for batting average.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.. Given that flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Walker Buehler (44.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 5 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. Roman Anthony has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Roman Anthony tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitchell Parker.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. Roman Anthony has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Roman Anthony tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitchell Parker.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. Marcelo Mayer has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.. Marcelo Mayer's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 20% on the season to 50% in the last 7 days.. In the past week's worth of games, Marcelo Mayer has displayed impressive power, recording a a 12.5% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jarren Duran's launch angle this year (12.4°) is a considerable increase over his 9.4° angle last year.. Over the last week, Jarren Duran's 60% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16%.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, James Wood will have an edge today.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an edge in today's game.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mitchell Parker is projected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers today.. Chad Fairchild grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in this game.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Keibert Ruiz (the Nationals's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as a weak pitch framer.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.

Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 90°.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Abraham Toro will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Mitchell Parker in today's matchup.. Abraham Toro's launch angle this year (16.8°) is a considerable increase over his 12.1° angle last year.. Abraham Toro's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (27.8° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 11.8° seasonal angle.