Boston @ Washington Picks & Props

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Marcelo Mayer has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Marcelo Mayer's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 20% on the season to 50% in the last 7 days. In the past week's worth of games, Marcelo Mayer has displayed impressive power, recording a a 12.5% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power).

The #4 venue in the majors for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams playing today. CJ Abrams has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph dropping to 84.4-mph in the past 7 days. CJ Abrams's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (9.6°) is significantly lower than his 13.7° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Roman Anthony has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Roman Anthony tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitchell Parker.

This year, Romy Gonzalez has been pinch hit for in 20% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter. Nationals Park grades out as the #27 ballpark in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense. Romy Gonzalez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Despite posting a .361 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Romy Gonzalez has been lucky given the .043 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jarren Duran's launch angle this year (12.4°) is a considerable increase over his 9.4° angle last year. Over the last week, Jarren Duran's 60% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16%.

Nate Eaton has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Nate Eaton will hold the platoon advantage against Mitchell Parker today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Trevor Story will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitchell Parker in today's game. Trevor Story has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.8% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the past week's worth of games.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Wood is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, James Wood will have an edge today. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Abraham Toro will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Mitchell Parker in today's matchup. Abraham Toro's launch angle this year (16.8°) is a considerable increase over his 12.1° angle last year. Abraham Toro's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (27.8° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 11.8° seasonal angle.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Over the last week, Carlos Narvaez's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Brady House will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. In the last week, Brady House's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 84.9-mph over the course of the season to 96.3-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Among all parks, Nationals Park's right field fences are the 7th-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Daylen Lile will hold the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Daylen Lile will hold that advantage in today's game.

Josh Bell is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Josh Bell has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Josh Bell will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Josh Bell has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 79th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF fences in the majors. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the platoon advantage against Mitchell Parker today. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Nathaniel Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (38% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Riley Adams has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Riley Adams will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Riley Adams's true offensive talent to be a .284, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .085 deviation between that mark and his actual .199 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°. Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jacob Young will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jacob Young has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89-mph average to last season's 84.9-mph average.

Paul DeJong has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.