Kansas City @ Arizona picks
Chase Field
KC vs AZ Picks
MLB Picks
Total
Pick made: 2 months ago

Ryan Gilbert
Betting Analyst
We’ve got a strong pitching matchup on tap, with Kansas City lefty Kris Bubic boasting a 2.25 ERA on the season. Meanwhile, don't let Eduardo Rodriguez's 5.13 ERA fool you, as Arizona's southpaw has allowed just six runs across his last 27 1/3 innings. The Royals also have a strong bullpen (3.55 ERA), and while the D-backs' pen has been weaker, we can trust them given how Kansas City's offense has fared down the stretch.
Total RBIs

Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #10 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Eugenio Suarez will hold the platoon advantage over Kris Bubic today.. Extreme flyball batters like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kris Bubic.
Total RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 5th-best batter in the game when assessing his batting average talent.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Bobby Witt Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Jonathan India o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Jonathan India is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The #10 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Jonathan India will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team in action today.
Total RBIs

Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for left-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team in action today.. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jac Caglianone has had some very poor luck this year. His .194 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.
Total RBIs

Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Ketel Marte is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Kris Bubic.. Ketel Marte will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Maikel Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Maikel Garcia will have an edge today.
Total RBIs

Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for left-handed batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team in action today.. In the past 7 days, Vinnie Pasquantino's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 102-mph in recent games.
Total RBIs

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Batting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will have an edge in today's game.. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Salvador Perez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Salvador Perez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team in action today.
Outs Recorded

Kris Bubic u17.5 Outs Recorded (+112)
Projection 16.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
It is expected that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Mark Wegner) calling pitches today.. The #3 field in baseball for boosting batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kris Bubic today.. Kris Bubic's 91.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 22nd percentile out of all SPs.. With a 1.57 difference between Kris Bubic's 2.25 ERA and his 3.82 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and figures to see worse results going forward.