Tampa Bay @ Minnesota picks
Target Field
TB vs MIN Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine

Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
The Twins are not playing good baseball right now, losing four of their last five games. While Tampa just snapped a three-game skid, they do have the pitching advantage in this matchup. Zack Littel is coming off a solid start vs. O's and has given up just one run in each of his last two starts. I'll take the visitors here.
Total Bases

Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Projection 2.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as Major League Baseball's 9th-best home run batter.. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 91°.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases

Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #6 venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 91°.
Total Bases

Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The #6 venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 91°.. Ryan Jeffers will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Ryan Jeffers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 89.5-mph EV.. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 37.5% to 45.7%.
Total Bases

Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #6 venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 91°.. Extreme flyball batters like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Paddack.
Total Bases

Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 1 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Royce Lewis is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all parks, the 5th-highest fence height (on average) are at Target Field.. Batting from the same side that Zack Littell throws from, Royce Lewis will have a disadvantage today.. In today's game, Royce Lewis is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.9% rate (86th percentile).. Royce Lewis's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (11.6°) is a significant dropoff from his 15.8° figure last season.
Total Bases

Ty France o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Ty France's batting average skill is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ty France is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #6 venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 91°.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Ty France will hold that advantage in today's matchup.