Baltimore @ Texas picks

Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, deGrom has recaptured the form that allowed him to dominate hitters from 2018 to 2021. He's allowed fewer than 1.5 earned runs in seven of his last 13 starts, posting a 1.67 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP over that span. The Orioles have struggled to hit on the road where they are 26th in the majors in OPS (.661) and runs per game (3.74). DeGrom's previous start came against the O's at Camden Yards last week, when he allowed just one hit across seven innings of shutout ball.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future. In the league, Globe Life Field has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Jacob deGrom will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Considering the 1.34 gap between Jacob deGrom's 2.08 ERA and his 3.42 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year and ought to negatively regress in future games.. Jacob deGrom has been one of the luckiest mound aces in MLB on balls in play this year with a .234 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

Gary Sanchez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. In the league, Globe Life Field has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Gary Sanchez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.2% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last 7 days.. In comparison to his 90-mph average last year, Gary Sanchez's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.3 mph.. Gary Sanchez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 94.5-mph EV.

In the league, Globe Life Field has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Coby Mayo has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.6% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past 7 days.. Coby Mayo has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .222 rate is a fair amount lower than his .259 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

In the league, Globe Life Field has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Cedric Mullins's launch angle this year (24.7°) is a significant increase over his 21.5° mark last season.. Over the past two weeks, Cedric Mullins's 25.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. In the league, Globe Life Field has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Gunnar Henderson has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 92.9-mph average.

In the league, Globe Life Field has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage today.. Kyle Higashioka has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph average.. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 15.8% on the season to 42.9% in the last 7 days.. Kyle Higashioka has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .253 figure is quite a bit lower than his .282 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.