Tampa Bay @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Jake Mangum is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game. The switch-hitting Jake Mangum will bat from his worse side (0) today against Zach Eflin Jake Mangum has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Jake Mangum generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Zach Eflin. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake Mangum in today's game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage today. Over the last week, Gary Sanchez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.2% up to 22.2%. Gary Sanchez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season's 90-mph EV.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jonathan Aranda today. Despite posting a .394 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonathan Aranda has had some very good luck given the .059 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.

Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Over the past two weeks, Brandon Lowe's 36.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.7%. When it comes to his batting average, Brandon Lowe has been very fortunate this year. His .273 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .242. In terms of plate discipline, Brandon Lowe's talent is quite weak, posting a 3.66 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 23rd percentile.

Among all parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's left field fences are the 3rd-deepest. Batting from the same side that Zack Littell throws from, Ramon Urias encounters a tough challenge in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Ramon Urias's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%. When it comes to his batting average, Ramon Urias has been very fortunate this year. His .266 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .250.

Zach Eflin will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zach Eflin. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 93.6-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 83-mph in the past week. In the past week's worth of games, Yandy Diaz's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.8%.

The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's game. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Colton Cowser will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today's game.

In the last 14 days, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 14.1% to 8.7%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.325) suggests that Gunnar Henderson has experienced some positive variance this year with his .344 actual wOBA.

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Junior Caminero's launch angle in recent games (26.6° in the past week) is significantly better than his 8.9° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ramon Laureano will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Jackson Holliday has displayed bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 18th percentile with a 4.13 K/BB rate.

The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Taylor Walls has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph to 92-mph in the last two weeks. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 15.8% to 19.7%. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 19.7% on the season to 32% in the past two weeks.

The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Matt Thaiss will have the handedness advantage over Zach Eflin in today's game. Matt Thaiss hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Matt Thaiss's speed has improved this season. His 24.85 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.36 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 16th-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average skill. The #6 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Chandler Simpson will have an advantage in today's matchup. Chandler Simpson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Dylan Carlson has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Danny Jansen has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.