Seattle @ Texas picks

The Mariners have scored one run across their last two games, and if they thought Minnesota pitching was tough, they are in for a treat when they take on Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi is poised to make his return from the IL, and all indications are he's ready to go deep. I expect him to dominate this M's lineup and for the Rangers to continue their high-scoring ways (11 runs over their last two games). 

Eovaldi is holding opponents to a .185 average entering tonight's matchup against the Seattle Mariners, and he has cashed the Under on his earned runs prop in seven consecutive appearances. He’s also very familiar with Seattle’s lineup, holding them to a .216 average across 111 at-bats. Back Eovaldi to shine at home in tonight's AL West showdown. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 9th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average skill.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. In the last 14 days, Julio Rodriguez has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 20° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.2°.. Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, notching a .310 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .048 discrepancy.. Julio Rodriguez's maximum exit velocity (a reliable stat to study power) has been 114.7 mph this year, placing in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as baseball's 4th-best home run hitter.. Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Batters such as Cal Raleigh with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Cal Raleigh has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year's 94.9-mph figure.. Cal Raleigh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 17.6% to 21.4%.

When it comes to his home run skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Adolis Garcia's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.3-mph now compared to just 91-mph then.. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this year (20.5°) is significantly better than his 14.8° angle last season.

Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Jorge Polanco tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.. In the past week's worth of games, Jorge Polanco's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.6% up to 15.4%.. Jorge Polanco has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph average.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.6°, Jorge Polanco has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21.1° mark over the past 14 days.

Jonah Heim will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Jonah Heim has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 6.4% seasonal rate to 13.3% over the last 7 days.. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 11.1% to 15.3%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Evan Carter ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Evan Carter will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert today.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Evan Carter has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Evan Carter will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. Compared to last year, Evan Carter has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.7% to 22.5% this season.

When it comes to his home run skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Adolis Garcia's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.3-mph now compared to just 91-mph then.. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this year (20.5°) is significantly better than his 14.8° angle last season.

The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Logan Gilbert will have the handedness advantage over Marcus Semien in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball batters like Marcus Semien usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.. Marcus Semien has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 2.3% in the past 14 days.. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined of late, going from 47% on the season to 31.8% over the last 7 days.

Corey Seager projects as the 12th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Batting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Corey Seager will have an edge today.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. Corey Seager will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Josh Jung will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Josh Jung has been unlucky this year. His .296 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs), Josh Jung and his 19.7% rank in the 91st percentile this year.