Texas @ Baltimore picks
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
TEX vs BAL Picks
MLB Picks
Total

Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Texas ranks 26th with just 3.57 runs per game, and Baltimore is only slightly better with 3.97 to rank 24th. The underlying numbers don’t jump off the page, either. The Rangers are 28th in wOBA and 20th in ISO against right-handed pitchers, with the Orioles checking in at 27th and 30th against lefties. Obviously, the pitching matchup has impacted the total. Still, Latz’s threw 5 2/3 frames in long relief last time out and surrendered a single run with just three hits and a walk allowed, and Morton has posted a tidy 2.42 ERA and 2.75 xFIP across his past five starts.
Total RBIs

Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Wyatt Langford has been unlucky this year, compiling a .321 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .357 — a .036 gap.
Total RBIs

Kyle Higashioka o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Kyle Higashioka has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 95.5-mph in the past two weeks.. In the past two weeks, Kyle Higashioka's 56.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.1%.. In terms of power, Kyle Higashioka grades out in the 86th percentile, having paced 26.4 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.
Total RBIs

Adolis Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Adolis Garcia is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Adolis Garcia has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last year's 91-mph average.
Total RBIs

Jordan Westburg o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Jordan Westburg is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Jordan Westburg will have the handedness advantage against Jake Latz today.
Total RBIs

Ramon Laureano o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run skill, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Jake Latz throws from, Ramon Laureano will have an advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs

Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best park in the game for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Jonah Heim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 38.4% to 44%.. Over the last two weeks, Jonah Heim's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44%.
Total RBIs

Evan Carter o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Evan Carter in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best park in the game for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Evan Carter will have the upper hand in today's game.. Evan Carter hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

Dylan Carlson o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Dylan Carlson will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Jake Latz in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage today.. In the past week's worth of games, Dylan Carlson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.7% up to 18.2%.
Total RBIs

Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Corey Seager projects as the 12th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best park in the game for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.. Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF fences are the shallowest.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total RBIs

Gary Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Gary Sanchez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #5 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Gary Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Jake Latz in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's game.