Texas @ Pittsburgh picks
PNC Park
TEX vs PIT Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Pirates starter Bailey Falter isn’t overpowering. He’s surrendered three earned runs and a pair of bombs in his last start and three home runs and eight earned runs across his previous 14 frames on the bump. If Adolis Garcia doesn’t reach 2+ total bases against Falter, this Pirates bullpen has served up seven bombs with a .388 SIERRA over the previous 30 days.
Total RBIs

Adolis Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Adolis Garcia will hold the platoon advantage over Bailey Falter today.
Total RBIs

Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
Projection 0.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 12th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Corey Seager is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
Total RBIs

Josh Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Josh Smith ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Josh Smith will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the worst among every team in action today.
Total RBIs

Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.
Total RBIs

Joey Bart o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Joey Bart's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Joey Bart is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.
Total RBIs

Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as MLB's 7th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Andrew McCutchen o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.
Total RBIs

Tommy Pham o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.. Tommy Pham will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Tommy Pham has been unlucky this year, notching a .231 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .305 — a .074 deviation.
Total RBIs

Ke'Bryan Hayes o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 8th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball batters like Ke'Bryan Hayes generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Leiter.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ke'Bryan Hayes will hold that advantage today.. Ke'Bryan Hayes has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.7-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 91.5-mph.
Total Bases

Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for bats.