Baltimore @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Bats such as Cedric Mullins with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Cedric Mullins's launch angle this season (24.8°) is quite a bit better than his 21.5° angle last season.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Bats such as Coby Mayo with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. In the last two weeks, Coby Mayo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph in recent games. Coby Mayo has been hot of late, compiling a a 15.8% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) in the past two weeks. Coby Mayo has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .198 rate is deflated compared to his .255 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 9th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Hitting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Yandy Diaz will have a tough matchup in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles. Over the past two weeks, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 94.4 mph to 87 mph.

Colton Cowser's BABIP talent is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge in today's game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Danny Jansen will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Danny Jansen has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 6.5% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 18.7% on the season to 26.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. In the past week, Ramon Urias's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7% up to 16.7%. In the last 7 days, Ramon Urias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 101.8-mph lately. Ranking in the 78th percentile, Ramon Urias has posted a .267 batting average this year.

Junior Caminero's batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Extreme groundball hitters like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Charlie Morton. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jordan Westburg is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. In the last two weeks, Jordan Westburg's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.3-mph of late. Compared to last year, Jordan Westburg has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 17.8% to 20.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Ryan O'Hearn's 22.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Gunnar Henderson will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gunnar Henderson's true offensive ability to be a .360, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .025 disparity between that figure and his actual .335 wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Over the last two weeks, Ramon Laureano has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 23.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 20.2°. In notching a .335 BABIP since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano grades out in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.4°, Adley Rutschman has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24° angle in the last 7 days. Adley Rutschman has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .311 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .342 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, going from 18.1% on the season to 57.1% in the past 7 days. Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .211 figure is considerably lower than his .231 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP talent is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Kameron Misner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kameron Misner will hold that advantage today. Over the last 14 days, Kameron Misner has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 15.3°.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Jose Caballero will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jose Caballero's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20%. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 43.9% to 51.4%. Sporting a .314 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Caballero has performed in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Extreme flyball bats like Jake Mangum usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Charlie Morton. Jake Mangum will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Ranking in the 94th percentile, Jake Mangum has put up a .308 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°. Batting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.