Baltimore @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 6th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Typically, bats like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Trevor Rogers. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 94.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 87-mph over the past two weeks.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's game. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball batters like Cedric Mullins usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Taj Bradley. There has been a significant improvement in Cedric Mullins's launch angle from last season's 21.5° to 24.8° this season.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Gary Sanchez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year's 90-mph average. Gary Sanchez's launch angle this year (19.5°) is a considerable increase over his 15.8° angle last season.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Trevor Rogers in this game. Taylor Walls has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 18.1% on the season to 57.1% over the last 7 days.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Jose Caballero will have the upper hand today. Jose Caballero will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 20% on the season to 25% over the past two weeks. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 43.9% to 51.4%.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme flyball hitters like Coby Mayo usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Taj Bradley. In the last 14 days, Coby Mayo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph of late. Coby Mayo has been hot in recent games, notching a a 15.8% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) over the past two weeks. Coby Mayo has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .198 mark is a fair amount lower than his .255 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage over Trevor Rogers in today's matchup. Hitters such as Danny Jansen with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Trevor Rogers who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Danny Jansen will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Danny Jansen has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 6.5% seasonal rate to 15.8% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Over the past two weeks, Ramon Laureano has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 23.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 20.2°. Ramon Laureano has notched a .335 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have the upper hand in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Ryan O'Hearn's 22.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jordan Westburg is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the past two weeks, Jordan Westburg's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.3-mph in recent games. Jordan Westburg's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 17.8% to 20.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Junior Caminero will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers today. Junior Caminero will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jake Mangum has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jake Mangum has compiled a .313 batting average this year, checking in at the 96th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jonathan Aranda will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jonathan Aranda has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.7% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Compared to his seasonal average of 15.4°, Adley Rutschman has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 24° figure in the last week's worth of games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.342) suggests that Adley Rutschman has had bad variance on his side this year with his .311 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Gunnar Henderson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's matchup. Gunnar Henderson has been unlucky this year, notching a .335 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .360 — a .025 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage over Taj Bradley today.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dylan Carlson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph mark. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (24.2° in the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 16.4° seasonal angle. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 39.1% to 50.7%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Christopher Morel will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Curtis Mead has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Curtis Mead will have the upper hand today. Curtis Mead has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Curtis Mead will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.