Baltimore @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The #6 park in the majors for suppressing batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field. Gunnar Henderson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest CF fences today. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today. Gunnar Henderson has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week. From last season to this one, Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.1% to 8.7%.

George M. Steinbrenner Field grades out as the #25 ballpark in MLB for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Yandy Diaz will be in a tough position in today's game. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 87-mph in the past two weeks.

George M. Steinbrenner Field grades out as the #25 ballpark in MLB for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 5th-deepest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in George M. Steinbrenner Field. Batting from the same side that Zack Littell throws from, Jordan Westburg has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Jordan Westburg will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. When it comes to plate discipline, Jordan Westburg's skill is quite poor, putting up a 3.99 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 18th percentile.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Dylan Carlson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph average. Over the last two weeks, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 26.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.7°. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 39.1% to 51.5%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Matt Thaiss will have an edge today. Matt Thaiss will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Matt Thaiss's speed has increased this season. His 24.85 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.42 ft/sec now. Posting a 1.69 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Matt Thaiss has shown impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Jackson Holliday will have an edge today. Extreme groundball bats like Jackson Holliday usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Littell.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Taylor Walls will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 18.1% on the season to 57.1% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Ryan O'Hearn's 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage over Zack Littell in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.9°, Adley Rutschman has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 19.4° figure in the last week's worth of games. Adley Rutschman has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .314 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .344 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jake Mangum's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Batters such as Jake Mangum with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dean Kremer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Jake Mangum will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Placing in the 96th percentile, Jake Mangum sports a .314 batting average this year.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Ramon Laureano has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 23.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 20.2°. In notching a .331 BABIP since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano is ranked in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Extreme flyball batters like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Dean Kremer. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand today. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Over the last week, Cedric Mullins's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.6% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer today. Jonathan Aranda will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 87°. Kameron Misner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer today. Kameron Misner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Kameron Misner's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (36.4° over the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 15.3° seasonal angle.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.