Minnesota @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Simeon Woods Richard throws from, Yainer Diaz will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences today. In the past week's worth of games, Yainer Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%. With a 4.68 K/BB rate this year, Yainer Diaz has displayed poor plate discipline, checking in at the 12th percentile.

Jonah Bride will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Walter in today's matchup. Jonah Bride pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. In the league, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Ryan Jeffers will have the upper hand in today's game. Ryan Jeffers has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 50.7% on the season to 100% in the last week's worth of games.

Brooks Lee pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Brooks Lee has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 93.2-mph in the past 7 days. Brooks Lee's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 15.6% to 18.8%.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output. Simeon Woods Richard will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Jeremy Pena's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%. Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.7°, Jeremy Pena has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2°) over the last two weeks. From last season to this one, Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 12.3% to 8.8%.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Harrison Bader will have an edge today. Harrison Bader pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Harrison Bader has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.6% seasonal rate to 17.4% in the last two weeks. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.5°, Harrison Bader has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 37.5° angle in the past week.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Byron Buxton ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Byron Buxton will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Walter in today's game. Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Byron Buxton usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Matt Wallner ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Wallner is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Wallner tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Walter. Matt Wallner has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 20.3% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last 14 days. Matt Wallner has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Willi Castro is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Willi Castro pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Over the past two weeks, Willi Castro's 61.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.7%. Willi Castro has notched a .358 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.

Carlos Correa's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Carlos Correa is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. In the league, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Carlos Correa will have the upper hand in today's game. Carlos Correa has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.5% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last 7 days.

Ty France's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ty France is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. In the league, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Ty France will have an advantage in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Ty France's 62.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.1%.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Christian Vazquez will have the upper hand today. Christian Vazquez has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .215 BA is deflated compared to his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. Mauricio Dubon has recorded a .263 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 78th percentile.

Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Victor Caratini usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard. Victor Caratini will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Victor Caratini's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (13.1°) is considerably higher than his 7.5° figure last season. In the past 7 days, Victor Caratini's 38.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Christian Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Christian Walker has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.6% seasonal rate to 25% over the last week. Christian Walker has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jake Meyers has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7% seasonal rate to 12.9% over the past two weeks. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 44.4% to 51.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Altuve will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Placing in the 79th percentile, Jose Altuve has notched a .276 batting average this year.

Cesar Salazar has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.