Tampa Bay @ New York Picks & Props

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Danny Jansen has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.2% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.1°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 36.7° angle over the past week.

Tyrone Taylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Tyrone Taylor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Tyrone Taylor has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph to 92.2-mph in the last two weeks. Tyrone Taylor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 13.5% to 17.5%. In the past week, Tyrone Taylor's 44.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.5%.

Taylor Walls has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.278) provides evidence that Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side this year with his .258 actual wOBA.

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 43.9% to 53.1%. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 53.1% on the season to 80% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Jose Caballero has recorded a .316 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 10th-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average talent. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Yandy Diaz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Yandy Diaz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 98.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jake Mangum has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Jake Mangum has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Junior Caminero has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 11.3% seasonal rate to 18.4% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Griffin Canning in today's matchup. Jonathan Aranda is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Juan Soto is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Francisco Lindor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Francisco Lindor has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.8% to 17.1%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

Kameron Misner will hold the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kameron Misner stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Kameron Misner has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today.

Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Francisco Alvarez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Francisco Alvarez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year's 88.7-mph mark. Over the past week, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 109.2-mph recently. Francisco Alvarez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 17.1% on the season to 33.3% over the past 7 days.

Jeff McNeil is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Jeff McNeil will have the handedness advantage against Shane Baz today. Jeff McNeil will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. In the last week, Jeff McNeil's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Brandon Nimmo will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Nimmo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz in today's game. Brett Baty has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Brett Baty has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 5.5% rate last season to 15.4% this season. Compared to his seasonal average of 7.9°, Brett Baty has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.4° angle over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luisangel Acuna in the 84th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Luisangel Acuna hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Luisangel Acuna will hold that advantage today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luisangel Acuna's true offensive talent to be a .283, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .026 deviation between that figure and his actual .257 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 14th-best batter in the game. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's game. Pete Alonso has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 13.2% rate last year to 20.8% this season.

Jared Young has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.