Tampa Bay @ New York Picks & Props

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tylor Megill. Junior Caminero has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 11.3% seasonal rate to 18.4% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jake Mangum has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Jake Mangum usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tylor Megill. Compared to his seasonal average of 0.1°, Jake Mangum has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 5.9° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games.

When assessing his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 12th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Yandy Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tylor Megill. Yandy Diaz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.5-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ronny Mauricio in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Ronny Mauricio will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Drew Rasmussen in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ronny Mauricio will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Ronny Mauricio has displayed impressive power, recording a an 18.2% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in the league. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Juan Soto will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Francisco Lindor will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Francisco Lindor has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.8% to 17.1%.

Luis Torrens's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Torrens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Luis Torrens will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Luis Torrens has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 18.9% seasonal rate to 25% over the past week. Luis Torrens has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .230 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .266 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Matt Thaiss will have the upper hand in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Thaiss stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Matt Thaiss hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences today. Matt Thaiss has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 24.85 ft/sec to 25.36 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Matt Thaiss has displayed strong plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 89th percentile with a 1.66 K/BB rate.

Taylor Walls has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.228) provides evidence that Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year with his .211 actual batting average.

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Pete Alonso will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 20.6% this year.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an advantage in today's game. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Brandon Nimmo will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Brett Baty will have the upper hand today. Brett Baty has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Brett Baty will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Brett Baty has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 5.5% rate last year to 15.2% this season. Brett Baty's launch angle in recent games (31.4° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 7.9° seasonal figure.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage over Tylor Megill in today's matchup. Jonathan Aranda is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

Kameron Misner will hold the platoon advantage over Tylor Megill today. Kameron Misner has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Kameron Misner has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jeff McNeil will hold that advantage today. Jeff McNeil has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Among all stadiums, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Starling Marte will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. When it comes to his batting average, Starling Marte has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .260 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .284. By putting up a .323 BABIP since the start of last season, Starling Marte is positioned in the 86th percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jared Young has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.