Tampa Bay @ New York Picks & Props

Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Hitters such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Clay Holmes who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Danny Jansen has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 6.2% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.1°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 36.7° angle in the past week. Sporting a 1.82 K/BB rate this year, Danny Jansen has displayed strong plate discipline, checking in at the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ronny Mauricio in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. The switch-hitting Ronny Mauricio will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Taj Bradley. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ronny Mauricio will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Ronny Mauricio has displayed impressive power, recording a an 18.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Junior Caminero has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 11.3% seasonal rate to 18.4% in the last two weeks. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 31.5% to 37.9%.

Tyrone Taylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Tyrone Taylor will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Tyrone Taylor has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph to 92.2-mph in the past two weeks. Tyrone Taylor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 13.5% to 17.5%. In the last week, Tyrone Taylor's 44.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jake Mangum has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 12th-best batter in baseball when assessing his batting average ability. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Yandy Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Yandy Diaz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 93.5-mph mark. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (4.9°) is a considerable increase over his 1.3° figure last season.

Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Francisco Alvarez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last year's 88.7-mph average. In the past week's worth of games, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 109.2-mph in recent games. Francisco Alvarez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, rising from 17.1% on the season to 33.3% in the last week.

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 43.9% to 53.1%. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 53.1% on the season to 80% in the last two weeks. Sporting a .315 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Caballero has performed in the 78th percentile.

Taylor Walls has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Taylor Walls has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .258 rate is a fair amount lower than his .278 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Pete Alonso will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 20.6% this year.

Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Kameron Misner will have an advantage today. Kameron Misner is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP. Kameron Misner has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Francisco Lindor has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.8% to 17.1%.

Juan Soto projects as the 4th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Juan Soto is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Juan Soto will have an advantage in today's matchup. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage over Clay Holmes in today's matchup. Jonathan Aranda will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Starling Marte will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.284) implies that Starling Marte has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .260 actual batting average. Starling Marte has recorded a .335 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 79th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Jeff McNeil is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Jeff McNeil will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jeff McNeil will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week, Jeff McNeil's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 16.7%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Brandon Nimmo will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Nimmo will hold that advantage today.

Brett Baty will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. Brett Baty has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Brett Baty will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Brett Baty has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 5.5% rate last year to 15.2% this year. Compared to his seasonal average of 7.9°, Brett Baty has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 31.4° mark in the past week.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.