Tampa Bay @ Boston picks

Giolito has allowed 6+ earned runs three times in 2025, and I see the Rays adding to his woes here. The Rays scored 10 runs in last night’s extra-innings win at Fenway Park. That’s ominous for Giolito, who has allowed a .347 batting average to righties this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 14th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average talent.. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.. Yandy Diaz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 95.7-mph in the past 7 days.

When assessing his home run skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.. Christopher Morel has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.3% rate last year to 15.9% this season.. Christopher Morel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 14.7% to 23.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.7% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Roman Anthony is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Roman Anthony will have an edge in today's game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Roman Anthony are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Roman Anthony will hold that advantage today.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Abraham Toro pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage today.. Sporting a .264 batting average since the start of last season, Abraham Toro has performed in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Junior Caminero tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.. Junior Caminero has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12% seasonal rate to 25.6% in the last two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito today.. By putting up a .389 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jonathan Aranda finds himself in the 94th percentile.. Placing in the 100th percentile, Jonathan Aranda has notched a .416 BABIP this year.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge today.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his home run skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.. Christopher Morel has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.3% rate last year to 15.9% this season.. Christopher Morel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 14.7% to 23.2%.

It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Marvin Hudson) in charge of the strike zone in this game.. Because groundball batters have a notable edge over flyball pitchers, Ryan Pepiot and his 38.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in this game being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.. Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan Pepiot today.. The 10.5% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox makes them the #3 offense in baseball this year by this stat.. Boston's 90.8-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the majors: #2 overall.