Tampa Bay @ Boston Picks & Props

The weather report calls for the most suitable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.7°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1°) in the last two weeks. With a 3.86 K/BB rate this year, Jarren Duran has displayed poor plate discipline, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

The weather report calls for the most suitable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Junior Caminero will be in a tough position in today's matchup. Junior Caminero will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In terms of plate discipline, Junior Caminero's talent is quite bad, posting a 3.66 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 25th percentile. Junior Caminero has compiled a .254 BABIP this year, placing in the 16th percentile.

The weather report calls for the most suitable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Lucas Giolito will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's game. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Over the past week, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%. Checking in at the 21st percentile, Yandy Diaz has put up a .261 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average. Jake Mangum has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Jake Mangum usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Christopher Morel has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.3% rate last year to 15.9% this season. Christopher Morel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 14.7% to 23.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Kristian Campbell has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball bats like Kristian Campbell are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. Kristian Campbell will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Kristian Campbell has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 92.1-mph.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge today. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Roman Anthony is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Roman Anthony will have an edge in today's game.

Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Danny Jansen's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.5% up to 33.3%. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.4°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 37.2° angle over the past two weeks. Danny Jansen has shown favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 77th percentile with a 1.72 K/BB rate.

Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 43.9% to 52.6%. Ranking in the 77th percentile, Jose Caballero sits with a .314 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Ceddanne Rafaela's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.1-mph lately. Ceddanne Rafaela's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 16.5% to 21.4%.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage today. Sporting a .264 batting average since the start of last season, Abraham Toro has performed in the 83rd percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.7% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past week.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito today. By putting up a .389 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jonathan Aranda finds himself in the 94th percentile. Placing in the 100th percentile, Jonathan Aranda has notched a .416 BABIP this year.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Marcelo Mayer will hold that advantage today. The standard deviation of Marcelo Mayer's launch angle has been very consistent recently (34.2° in the past 14 days), which is a measure of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Trevor Story will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Carlos Narvaez has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Carlos Narvaez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. By putting up a .280 batting average this year, Carlos Narvaez grades out in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average. Kameron Misner will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito in today's matchup. Kameron Misner has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.