Boston @ New York picks

The Yankees put nine runs on the Red Sox in a 9-6 Friday victory and are sending Carlos Rodon to the mound for Sunday Night Baseball in what will be this series finale (Saturday's game hasn't happened at the time of writing). Rodon has given up just two earned runs over his last four starts and has gone seven innings in back-to-back outings. Give me the Yankees on the run line.

There’s EVEN money being offered at Caesars Sportsbook for Rodon to eclipse 7.5 Ks. He’s recorded eight or more punchouts in three straight games and is averaging 7.8 across his last 10. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Rob Refsnyder will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's matchup.. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. Rob Refsnyder has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 89.5-mph mark.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Aaron Judge has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 24.2% seasonal rate to 40% over the past 7 days.. Aaron Judge has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 106.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 98.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Dobbins throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an edge today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Cody Bellinger will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Dobbins in today's matchup.. Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Cody Bellinger will hold that advantage in today's game.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Aaron Judge has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 24.2% seasonal rate to 40% over the past 7 days.. Aaron Judge has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 106.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 98.3-mph.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. Utilizing Statcast data, Rafael Devers grades out in the 77th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 23.600.. In notching a .388 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Rafael Devers finds himself in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Rob Refsnyder will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's matchup.. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. Rob Refsnyder has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 89.5-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Kristian Campbell will have an advantage in today's game.. Kristian Campbell has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Kristian Campbell tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have an edge in today's game.. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. In the last week's worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph recently.. Compared to last year, Ceddanne Rafaela has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.5% to 21.9% this season.

When it comes to his home run ability, Trevor Story ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Trevor Story will have an advantage in today's game.. Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. In the past week, Trevor Story's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.2% up to 25%.. Trevor Story has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 102.4-mph in the last 7 days.