Baltimore @ Athletics Picks & Props

Hitting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Jacob Wilson faces a tough challenge in today's matchup. Typically, hitters like Jacob Wilson who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tomoyuki Sugano. Jacob Wilson's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 87-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 82.7-mph in the last week. Jacob Wilson has been lucky this year, notching a .403 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .088 deviation. Jacob Wilson and his 2° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the league this year.

Jacob Lopez will hold the platoon advantage over Gunnar Henderson today. Gunnar Henderson has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's game. Gunnar Henderson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 93.7-mph dropping to 91.3-mph over the past two weeks. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 14.1% to 7.8%.

Lawrence Butler has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Lawrence Butler's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 86.5-mph in the past week. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.302) provides evidence that Lawrence Butler has been lucky this year with his .351 actual wOBA.

Batting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Brent Rooker has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game. In the last 7 days, Brent Rooker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 5.3%. Brent Rooker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 18.3% on the season to 7.7% over the last two weeks. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Brent Rooker has had positive variance on his side this year. His .358 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .336.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, JJ Bleday will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like JJ Bleday are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and JJ Bleday will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates JJ Bleday's true offensive ability to be a .321, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .039 difference between that mark and his actual .282 wOBA.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Jacob Lopez today. This season, Dylan Carlson has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.9 mph compared to last year's 88.3 mph mark. Compared to last season, Dylan Carlson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 39.1% to 51.2% this season. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 51.2% on the season to 61.5% in the past week's worth of games.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Willie MacIver will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Willie MacIver has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs recently, angling balls between 23° and 34° 57.1% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Extreme flyball batters like Jackson Holliday tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jacob Lopez. In the past week's worth of games, Jackson Holliday's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.8% up to 20%.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tyler Soderstrom ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler Soderstrom is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Batting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Tyler Soderstrom will have the upper hand in today's game. Tyler Soderstrom will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. In the last 7 days, Colton Cowser has averaged an impressive 101.6-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced proxy for home run potential. Colton Cowser has put up a .332 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 76th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Since the start of last season, Colton Cowser's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to evaluate power) is in the 94th percentile at 95.8 mph.

Max Muncy is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Max Muncy will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Max Muncy has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 5.9% seasonal rate to 20% over the last week. Max Muncy has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 91.5-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Adley Rutschman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Jacob Lopez in today's matchup. Over the past week, Adley Rutschman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.8-mph over the course of the season to 105.7-mph in recent games.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Luis Urias will hold that advantage today. Luis Urias has shown impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile with a 1.28 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ramon Laureano has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Ramon Laureano will have the handedness advantage over Jacob Lopez today. Since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano's 13.6% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 90th percentile among his peers.

Ramon Urias is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Ramon Urias will hold the platoon advantage over Jacob Lopez in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Coby Mayo will hold the platoon advantage over Jacob Lopez today. Coby Mayo's speed has increased this year. His 27.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.51 ft/sec now. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Coby Mayo has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .171 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .218.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Denzel Clarke as the 9th-best batter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Denzel Clarke will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Denzel Clarke has displayed some good exit velocity stats recently, averaging 101-mph on his flyballs over the past 14 days. Ranking in the 98th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.86 ft/sec this year, Denzel Clarke is very athletic.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 81°. Batting from the opposite that Jacob Lopez throws from, Emmanuel Rivera will have an edge today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.259) suggests that Emmanuel Rivera has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .239 actual batting average.

Heston Kjerstad has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Ryan O'Hearn has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.