Texas @ Washington Picks & Props

Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers. Despite posting a .332 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Amed Rosario has had positive variance on his side given the .030 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .302. Amed Rosario's 4.7% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) ranks in the 20th percentile since the start of last season. By putting up an 8.39 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Amed Rosario has demonstrated poor plate discipline, ranking in the 1st percentile.

Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 11.1% to 15.7%. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 15.7% on the season to 26.7% in the last two weeks.

Evan Carter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Williams today... and even better, Williams has a large platoon split. Evan Carter pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Evan Carter has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .265 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .286.

Corey Seager will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Corey Seager's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 19% on the season to 7.1% over the last 14 days.

Josh Smith is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Given Trevor Williams's large platoon split, Josh Smith will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Josh Smith's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 45.6% on the season to 56.7% over the last two weeks. Grading out in the 76th percentile, Josh Smith has put up a .275 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sam Haggerty in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Sam Haggerty is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Over the past 14 days, Sam Haggerty's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.8-mph over the course of the season to 97.5-mph lately. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Sam Haggerty has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .259 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .341.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in the league when it comes to his BABIP talent. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like James Wood usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jake Latz. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and James Wood will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Robert Hassell III in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Extreme groundball bats like Robert Hassell III usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Latz. Robert Hassell III will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Robert Hassell III has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 94-mph.

Josh Jung's BABIP ability is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Josh Jung is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 16.8% to 21.1%. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 48% on the season to 60.7% in the past 14 days. By putting up a .327 BABIP this year, Josh Jung grades out in the 77th percentile.

Alejandro Osuna will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Williams in today's game... and moreover, Williams has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Wyatt Langford pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 94.3-mph in the last 14 days. Last year, Wyatt Langford had an average launch angle of 11.5° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17.9°.

Extreme groundball batters like Nasim Nunez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Latz. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Nasim Nunez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.303) suggests that Nasim Nunez has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .279 actual wOBA. Nasim Nunez is notably fast, placing in the 98th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.77 ft/sec this year.

Jacob Young's BABIP ability is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Jake Latz throws from, Jacob Young will have an advantage in today's game. Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Jacob Young tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Latz. Jacob Young will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Over the last 7 days, Jake Burger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.4-mph over the course of the season to 102.8-mph in recent games. Jake Burger's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 11.8% on the season to 24.2% in the past two weeks. Despite posting a .275 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has had some very poor luck given the .066 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .341.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Marcus Semien is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Marcus Semien pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Marcus Semien has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal EV of 91.6-mph. Over the past 7 days, Marcus Semien's 77.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.5%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 99-mph in the past two weeks. Despite posting a .271 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has experienced some negative variance given the .051 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

Josh Bell is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Josh Bell has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jake Latz. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Josh Bell will hold that advantage today. Josh Bell has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 11.6% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the last two weeks.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. CJ Abrams will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Compared to last year, CJ Abrams has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.6% to 19.4% this season. By putting up a .350 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, CJ Abrams is positioned in the 84th percentile for hitting ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jake Latz. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Nathaniel Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game.

Alex Call has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Jake Latz throws from, Alex Call will have the upper hand in today's game. Alex Call has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Alex Call will hold that advantage today. Placing in the 97th percentile, Alex Call sits with a .378 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage today. In the last 14 days, Keibert Ruiz has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 18.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 4.5°.

Batting from the opposite that Jake Latz throws from, Riley Adams will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Riley Adams has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Riley Adams has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .195 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .233. Since the start of last season, Riley Adams has an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph, which is one of the best in MLB at the 79th percentile.

Jose Tena has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.