Arizona @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Corbin Carroll today. Corbin Carroll's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 38% on the season to 20.7% over the past two weeks. Corbin Carroll has been lucky this year, putting up a .383 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .025 disparity.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today.

Will Benson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Hitting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Will Benson will have an advantage in today's matchup. Will Benson is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP. Will Benson pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Alek Thomas will have the handedness advantage against Nick Martinez today. Alek Thomas has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Alek Thomas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez. Alek Thomas has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 8.8% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Randal Grichuk ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Randal Grichuk pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Randal Grichuk has compiled a .344 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 85th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Randal Grichuk has compiled a .359 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Matt McLain has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Matt McLain will hold that advantage today. Matt McLain has been unlucky this year, compiling a .261 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .065 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Ryne Nelson in today's matchup. Elly De La Cruz has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 13% to 20%. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 20% on the season to 26.3% over the past 14 days. Geraldo Perdomo has compiled a .280 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.224) suggests that Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .188 actual batting average.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 43.9% to 49.2%. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 49.2% on the season to 65.6% over the past two weeks. In terms of his batting average, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year. His .250 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .275.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, TJ Friedl will have an advantage in today's matchup. TJ Friedl is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP. TJ Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Spencer Steer will hold that advantage in today's game. Spencer Steer's launch angle lately (24.9° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 16.4° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .275 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Spencer Steer has experienced some negative variance given the .033 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .308.

Ketel Marte projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Ketel Marte pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Ketel Marte has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 15.7% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the past 7 days.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage over Ryne Nelson in today's matchup. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jake Fraley pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Fraley will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Gavin Lux is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Gavin Lux will have an edge in today's game. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Lux stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Tyler Stephenson has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Tyler Stephenson will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Tyler Stephenson has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 9.1% rate last season to 16.1% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. This season, Eugenio Suarez has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.7 mph compared to last year's 92.6 mph mark.

Santiago Espinal is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Santiago Espinal has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Santiago Espinal will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Santiago Espinal has shown good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 87th percentile with a 1.47 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Pavin Smith is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the slate today. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Pavin Smith will have an advantage in today's game. Pavin Smith has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 91.6-mph.

Ildemaro Vargas has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.