Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. There has been a significant decline in Alec Bohm's launch angle from last season's 10° to 6.7° this year. Alec Bohm has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 18th percentile with a 4.15 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Bryson Stott's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 16.2% to 21.1%. Bryson Stott has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .297 rate is a fair amount lower than his .315 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Ke'Bryan Hayes will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Ke'Bryan Hayes's launch angle from last year's 4.7° to 8.2° this year. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been unlucky this year, posting a .255 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .043 difference.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Castellanos in today's game. Compared to his seasonal figure of 17.3°, Nick Castellanos has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.8°) in the past 14 days.

J.T. Realmuto will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.9% down to 0%. J.T. Realmuto's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 91.1-mph seasonal average has decreased to 79.5-mph over the past 7 days. J.T. Realmuto's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, going from 43% on the season to 27.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Checking in at the 23rd percentile, J.T. Realmuto has posted a .284 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Ranger Suarez will hold the platoon advantage over Adam Frazier in today's game. Adam Frazier will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Adam Frazier's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 0.7% up to 14.3%. Adam Frazier's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (16.1°) is significantly better than his 11.9° mark last season. In the last week's worth of games, Adam Frazier's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.3%.

Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Trea Turner's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.1-mph figure last season has lowered to 90.1-mph. When it comes to his batting average, Trea Turner has had some very good luck this year. His .300 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .261.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 18th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Kyle Schwarber has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 104.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 99.3-mph. There has been a significant improvement in Kyle Schwarber's launch angle from last season's 14.9° to 18.8° this season. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.8°, Kyle Schwarber has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 30° figure over the last two weeks.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's batting average skill is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 88.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 86.5-mph figure. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 49.6% on the season to 80% over the last 7 days. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has posted a .363 BABIP this year, ranking in the 95th percentile.

Bailey Falter will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Harper in today's matchup. Bryce Harper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bryce Harper in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jared Triolo will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.232) may lead us to conclude that Jared Triolo has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .204 actual batting average. Jared Triolo is notably athletic, ranking in the 82nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.44 ft/sec this year.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage today. Henry Davis has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 8.2% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks. Over the past 14 days, Henry Davis's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.5-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph recently. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.257) suggests that Henry Davis has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .230 actual wOBA.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Ranger Suarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Oneil Cruz today. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Oneil Cruz has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 15.7% rate last season to 24.3% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will bat from his bad side against Ranger Suarez today. Bryan Reynolds will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Bryan Reynolds has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 94.5-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 79th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Hitting from the same side that Ranger Suarez throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. Spencer Horwitz will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Spencer Horwitz has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Andrew McCutchen will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the past week, Andrew McCutchen's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.6% up to 23.1%. In the past 7 days, Andrew McCutchen's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.2-mph over the course of the season to 102-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Edmundo Sosa will have an edge today. Over the past week, Edmundo Sosa's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 8.8%. Edmundo Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 39.5% to 52.9%. Sporting a .331 BABIP since the start of last season, Edmundo Sosa has performed in the 87th percentile.

Weston Wilson will hold the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter today.

Johan Rojas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter in today's game. Hitters such as Johan Rojas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Falter who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Alexander Canario is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Alexander Canario will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Alexander Canario has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .281 rate is a fair amount lower than his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Endy Rodriguez has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.