Arizona @ Atlanta Picks & Props

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Corbin Carroll today. Corbin Carroll has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 16.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Corbin Carroll's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 39.7% on the season to 24% in the last two weeks. Corbin Carroll has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .385 figure is a fair amount higher than his .360 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks. Over the past 14 days, Drake Baldwin's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%. Drake Baldwin's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 15.6% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Drake Baldwin has been lucky this year, putting up a .380 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .070 disparity.

Hitting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Austin Riley will have a disadvantage in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks. Posting a 3.77 K/BB rate this year, Austin Riley has demonstrated weak plate discipline, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt will have the handedness advantage over Ronald Acuna Jr. today. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 48.9% on the season to 63.3% in the last two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) may lead us to conclude that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been unlucky this year with his .251 actual batting average.

Ketel Marte projects as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Ketel Marte has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 102.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 94.8-mph. Ketel Marte has compiled a .401 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 99th percentile. By putting up a 1.42 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Ketel Marte has displayed impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 95th percentile.

Jose Herrera has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Nick Allen hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Batters such as Nick Allen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Nick Allen will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 13% to 21.2%. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 21.2% on the season to 61.5% over the past 7 days. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .288. Geraldo Perdomo has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, ranking in the 98th percentile with a 0.88 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Alex Verdugo will have an edge today. Alex Verdugo is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Verdugo will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.314) provides evidence that Alex Verdugo has suffered from bad luck this year with his .282 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Gabriel Moreno hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Gabriel Moreno has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year's 90-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Extreme flyball batters like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Grant Holmes. Eugenio Suarez's launch angle this season (22.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 19.3° angle last year. Compared to his seasonal average of 22.9°, Eugenio Suarez has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 30° mark over the last week.

Ozzie Albies will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. In the last two weeks, Ozzie Albies's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.6-mph over the course of the season to 93.1-mph lately. Ozzie Albies's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 14.2% to 17.6%. Despite posting a .289 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ozzie Albies has had bad variance on his side given the .032 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .321.

Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Alek Thomas will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Alek Thomas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.4% up to 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Marcell Ozuna will hold that advantage today. Using Statcast metrics, Marcell Ozuna grades out in the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .382. Marcell Ozuna has compiled a .387 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Matt Olson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Matt Olson will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP. Matt Olson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Michael Harris II will have the upper hand today. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Harris II has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Michael Harris II will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Pavin Smith ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Pavin Smith will have the upper hand today. Sporting a .375 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Pavin Smith finds himself in the 91st percentile. Pavin Smith has compiled a .341 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 91st percentile.