Colorado @ Miami Picks & Props

LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today. Agustin Ramirez has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Agustin Ramirez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 2.3%. Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Agustin Ramirez has had positive variance on his side given the .026 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Brenton Doyle is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Brenton Doyle hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today. In the last week's worth of games, Brenton Doyle's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.4% up to 20%. Brenton Doyle has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 94-mph.

LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today. In today's game, Otto Lopez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile). Otto Lopez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (3.8° over the last week) is a significant dropoff from his 10.7° seasonal angle. Otto Lopez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 41.5% to 35.4%.

In MLB, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 4th-shallowest.

LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today. The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side (0) today against Kyle Freeland Xavier Edwards has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.1-mph mark last year has lowered to 84.3-mph.

Mickey Moniak will hold the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's matchup. Mickey Moniak may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP. Mickey Moniak has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph figure. Mickey Moniak's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (27.6° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 15.4° seasonal mark. Mickey Moniak has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .216 rate is a fair amount lower than his .236 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Tyler Freeman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Tyler Freeman has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5.3% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last week's worth of games. Over the past week, Tyler Freeman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph recently. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.234) may lead us to conclude that Tyler Freeman has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .213 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Sanoja in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Javier Sanoja will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Freeland in today's matchup. Javier Sanoja hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Javier Sanoja usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Freeland. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Javier Sanoja will hold that advantage today.

Jacob Stallings's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 17.9% to 28.8%. Jacob Stallings has been unlucky this year, putting up a .194 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .270 — a .076 discrepancy.

Extreme flyball hitters like Orlando Arcia are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby as the 18th-best hitter in the game when assessing his BABIP ability. Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. In MLB, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 4th-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Connor Norby will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Connor Norby will hold that advantage today.

Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hunter Goodman hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Hunter Goodman has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.2% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last week. Hunter Goodman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 96.5-mph in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Beck in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jordan Beck is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. In MLB, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 4th-shallowest. The Barrel% of Jordan Beck has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.6% last year to 14.8% this season. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.6°, Jordan Beck has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.5° mark in the past 7 days.

Nick Fortes will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Freeland in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Nick Fortes will hold that advantage in today's game. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 11.6% to 22.6%. Over the last 14 days, Nick Fortes's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 22.6%.

Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Eric Wagaman will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Freeland in today's game. Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Eric Wagaman will hold that advantage in today's game. Eric Wagaman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 16.1% on the season to 29.4% in the past week.

Thairo Estrada is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Ryan McMahon will have the handedness advantage over Cal Quantrill in today's game. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan McMahon can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Ryan McMahon has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 92-mph EV. Ryan McMahon has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 98.6-mph in the last 7 days.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Dane Myers is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Dane Myers will have the upper hand in today's game. Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Dane Myers with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kyle Freeland who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Dane Myers will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

In MLB, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 4th-shallowest. Jack WInkler will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Freeland in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jack WInkler will hold that advantage today.

Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. In MLB, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 4th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Heriberto Hernandez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Heriberto Hernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Kyle Stowers has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Sam Hilliard has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.