Texas @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 7th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Kumar Rocker will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Rocker's large platoon split. Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kumar Rocker. Sporting a .285 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Yandy Diaz finds himself in the 25th percentile. Yandy Diaz has notched a .241 BABIP this year, placing in the 9th percentile.

George M. Steinbrenner Field profiles as the #24 venue in baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 5th-deepest centerfield dimensions in the majors are found in George M. Steinbrenner Field. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Corey Seager in today's game. Compared to his seasonal figure of 11.1°, Corey Seager has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.3°) over the last 14 days. Corey Seager's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 25.34 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.02 ft/sec now.

Evan Carter is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Evan Carter will have an edge in today's game. Evan Carter pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Evan Carter has made big strides with his Barrel%, upping his 5.9% rate last year to 11.1% this season.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 95.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Last year, Wyatt Langford had an average launch angle of 11.5° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18.3°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this season (21.2°) is considerably better than his 14.8° angle last season. Despite posting a .271 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has experienced some negative variance given the .052 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.

This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Matt Thaiss will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kumar Rocker in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Rocker has a large platoon split. Matt Thaiss will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Matt Thaiss's quickness has gotten better this season. His 24.85 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.36 ft/sec now. Matt Thaiss has exhibited favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 92nd percentile with a 1.54 K/BB rate.

Josh Smith is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Josh Smith will have an advantage today. Josh Smith has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.3-mph average. Ranking in the 79th percentile, Josh Smith sits with a .277 batting average this year.

This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Over the past week, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.8% up to 14.3%. Jonah Heim has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 102.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 92-mph. In the last week, Jonah Heim's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Junior Caminero's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11% up to 30%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 16.8% to 21.3%. Over the past two weeks, Josh Jung's 63.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.2%.

Alejandro Osuna is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Alejandro Osuna will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Extreme flyball batters like Marcus Semien usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz. Over the last week, Marcus Semien's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 97.4-mph lately. Marcus Semien's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (16.8°) is significantly higher than his 13.5° figure last year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Jake Burger has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.6% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last 14 days. Jake Burger has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure. Over the last 14 days, Jake Burger's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.9%.

Jake Mangum's BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ranking in the 88th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.81 ft/sec this year, Jake Mangum is remarkably quick.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Kumar Rocker today... and even more favorably, Rocker has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Kumar Rocker in today's matchup... and moreover, Rocker has a large platoon split. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Jose Caballero will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Jose Caballero has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 85.7-mph average to last year's 83.5-mph average. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.8°, Jose Caballero has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23.8° figure in the past two weeks' worth of games. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 43.9% to 51.6%.

This game is expected to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Kameron Misner will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kumar Rocker in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Rocker has a large platoon split. Kameron Misner will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Kameron Misner has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 6.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week's worth of games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.