Texas @ Tampa Bay picks
George M. Steinbrenner Field
TEX vs TB Picks
MLB Picks
Hits, Runs, and RBIs


Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Since May 1, Baz has allowed a 1.084 OPS, 17.1% barrel rate, and walked more batters than he’s struck out. That’s never a good sign. Wyatt Langford hasn’t had the season anyone hoped or expected, but his game is trending in the right direction, especially against what Baz throws. He owns a .281 expected average and 63% hard hit rate against Baz’s two primary pitches over the last month. Given Baz’s struggles against righties, Langford’s improved play, and the return of Corey Seager, which raises the floor and ceiling of the Texas Rangers' offense – there is a lot to like about Langford in this spot.
Total RBIs

Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 95.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.
Total RBIs

Yandy Diaz o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Adolis Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this season (21.2°) is considerably better than his 14.8° angle last season.. Despite posting a .271 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has experienced some negative variance given the .052 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.
Total RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Kumar Rocker today... and even more favorably, Rocker has a large platoon split.
Total Bases

Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 95.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.
Total Bases

Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jake Burger projects as the 18th-best home run batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Jake Burger has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.6% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last 14 days.. Jake Burger has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jonah Heim o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Over the past week, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.8% up to 14.3%.. Jonah Heim has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 102.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 92-mph.. In the last week, Jonah Heim's 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.3%.
Total Bases

Josh Jung o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 16.8% to 21.3%.
Total Bases

Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Extreme flyball batters like Marcus Semien usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz.. Over the last week, Marcus Semien's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 97.4-mph lately.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jake Burger o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+100)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jake Burger projects as the 18th-best home run batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in MLB.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Jake Burger has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.6% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last 14 days.. Jake Burger has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.