Los Angeles @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Lucas Giolito will hold the platoon advantage over Mike Trout today. Typically, hitters like Mike Trout who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Lucas Giolito. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team playing today. Mike Trout will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Over the past 7 days, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.5% down to 0%. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (5°) is significantly lower than his 8.4° angle last season. In the past week's worth of games, Jarren Duran's 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 46.3%. Sporting a 3.97 K/BB rate this year, Jarren Duran has displayed poor plate discipline, ranking in the 20th percentile.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Zach Neto encounters a tough challenge today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team playing today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Zach Neto in today's game. Zach Neto has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 17.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 7 days.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Jose Soriano will hold the platoon advantage over Ceddanne Rafaela today. As it relates to plate discipline, Ceddanne Rafaela's talent is quite bad, sporting a 3.95 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 20th percentile.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. In the past 7 days, Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 95.4 mph to 75.9 mph. Rafael Devers's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (5° over the past 14 days) is significantly lower than his 11.5° seasonal angle. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Rafael Devers has had some very good luck this year. His .394 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .368.

Marcelo Mayer is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in MLB for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Rengifo in the 79th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in MLB for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Luis Rengifo hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Kristian Campbell's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Kristian Campbell has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in MLB for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Abraham Toro pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Los Angeles Angels outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in MLB for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Soriano throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jorge Soler is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Taylor Ward is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Schanuel in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Nolan Schanuel is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in MLB for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 park in MLB for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Los Angeles Angels outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Logan O'Hoppe in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Logan O'Hoppe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest left field fences in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. There has been a significant improvement in Chris Taylor's launch angle from last season's 16.8° to 24.6° this season.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Kevin Newman has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Carlos Narvaez has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Scott Kingery hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Jo Adell pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jo Adell has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year's 94.1-mph average.