Kansas City @ St. Louis Picks & Props

10% of the time that Masyn Winn has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. HRs are generally less common at ballparks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all major league parks. Michael Lorenzen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Masyn Winn in today's matchup. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest among all the teams in action today. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 90.4-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 80.1-mph over the past 7 days.

Brendan Donovan has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest among all the teams in action today. Over the past week, Brendan Donovan's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 89.9 mph to 77.3 mph. Brendan Donovan's launch angle lately (2° over the past week) is considerably lower than his 9.9° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brendan Donovan's true offensive skill to be a .338, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .029 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .367 wOBA.

Hitting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Salvador Perez faces a tough challenge in today's game. Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Salvador Perez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. There has been a significant decline in Salvador Perez's launch angle from last year's 18.6° to 15.6° this season. Salvador Perez's launch angle in recent games (0.7° over the last week) is a considerable dropoff from his 15.6° seasonal angle.

Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Maikel Garcia will be in a tough position in today's game. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Maikel Garcia today. Maikel Garcia has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week. In the past two weeks, Maikel Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 90.6 mph to 87.8 mph. Maikel Garcia's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 13.9% on the season to 0% in the past week.

The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Kyle Isbel will have an edge in today's matchup.

The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Victor Scott II will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Lorenzen today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's game. Victor Scott II's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 19% on the season to 50% in the past 7 days.

The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Michael Massey will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante today. Extreme flyball hitters like Michael Massey are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante. Michael Massey's launch angle this year (22.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 16.7° mark last year. Michael Massey's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 41% on the season to 62.5% in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jonathan India is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Jonathan India's launch angle this season (17°) is significantly higher than his 13.3° angle last year. Despite posting a .287 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonathan India has experienced some negative variance given the .049 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .336.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Batting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an advantage today. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Andre Pallante will hold the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's matchup. In today's game, Bobby Witt Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.6% rate (89th percentile). Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.

The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Nick Loftin has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .245 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .280. Nick Loftin has exhibited favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile with a 1.34 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Drew Waters will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Andre Pallante in today's game. Drew Waters has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 4.8% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past week. Drew Waters has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 87.3-mph figure.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Willson Contreras will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Vinnie Pasquantino will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante today. Vinnie Pasquantino has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 94.5-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage today. Over the last week, Ivan Herrera's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 101.2-mph over the course of the season to 106.2-mph lately.

The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nolan Arenado will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Nolan Arenado has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 5.1% to 12.9%. Compared to his seasonal average of 19°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 28.7° angle in the last 14 days. As it relates to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's ability is quite good, posting a 1.34 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 91st percentile.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Michael Lorenzen today. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game.

The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Michael Lorenzen today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman's launch angle this year (23.6°) is significantly higher than his 20.4° figure last year. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Gorman has had some very poor luck this year. His .255 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .289.

Jac Caglianone has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.