Chicago @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-driest conditions of all games on the slate at 39%. Today, Jackson Holliday is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.9% rate (92nd percentile). Extreme flyball hitters like Jackson Holliday are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Adrian Houser. Jackson Holliday's speed has declined this season. His 29.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.64 ft/sec now. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Jackson Holliday ranks in just the 21st percentile with a 9° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in Major League Baseball.

Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-driest conditions of all games on the slate at 39%. From last year to this one, Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.1% to 8.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase Meidroth in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Chase Meidroth is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Chase Meidroth has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Josh Rojas will have the handedness advantage over Charlie Morton in today's game. Josh Rojas has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .279 figure is a fair amount lower than his .296 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edgar Quero in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Edgar Quero has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .301 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .320 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Andrew Benintendi's batting average ability is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.

Mike Tauchman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Mike Tauchman will have an advantage in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Mike Tauchman has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .442.

Luis Robert Jr.'s BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. There has been a significant improvement in Luis Robert Jr.'s launch angle from last season's 13.1° to 18.5° this season. Despite posting a .252 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Luis Robert Jr. has had bad variance on his side given the .064 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .316.

The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Jorge Mateo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jorge Mateo will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Lenyn Sosa has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Lenyn Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Lenyn Sosa has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.9-mph average to last year's 88.9-mph EV.

Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Miguel Vargas has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last year's 89.3-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Adrian Houser in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Dylan Carlson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Dylan Carlson and his 18.9° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 89th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

Ramon Urias has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Ramon Urias hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today's game.

Heston Kjerstad's BABIP skill is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Heston Kjerstad will have an advantage today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Heston Kjerstad will hold that advantage today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Joshua Palacios will have an advantage in today's matchup. Batters such as Joshua Palacios with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Charlie Morton who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. When it comes to his batting average, Joshua Palacios has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .220 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Maverick Handley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Maverick Handley will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.