Tampa Bay @ Houston picks

The Tampa Bay Rays are playing some good baseball right now, but I can't trust them on the road in this spot. The team is far too inconsistent at the dish, and the Astros own one of the best pitching staffs across the Majors. I'll take the Stros' pitching to win out at home on Thursday. 

Shane Baz isn’t having the greatest campaign for the Rays, going 4-3 with a 4.93 ERA in 10 starts. He’s had trouble with the home run, allowing 10 of them. Overall, opponents are hitting .262 against the right-hander. While he gave up just one earned run in his last start against the Blue Jays, I’m predicting him to struggle tonight. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in the majors.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an edge in today's matchup.

When it comes to his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Among all the teams playing today, the 9th-best infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Hitters such as Junior Caminero with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Gusto who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Jose Altuve's batting average skill is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Victor Caratini has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 10.3% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past 14 days.. Over the past two weeks, Victor Caratini's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 106.2-mph of late.

Jake Meyers's batting average skill is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Meyers is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Jake Meyers will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 46.7% on the season to 55.6% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 17th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Gusto.. Among all the teams playing today, the 9th-best infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.

The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Among all the teams playing today, the 9th-best infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.. Danny Jansen has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph figure.. Danny Jansen has displayed good plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 96th percentile with a 1.34 K/BB rate.

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Hitters such as Junior Caminero with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Gusto who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Hitters such as Junior Caminero with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Gusto who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.