Atlanta @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #24 venue in MLB for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which tends to lead to worse offense. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Alec Bohm has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past two weeks. Alec Bohm has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 19th percentile with a 3.83 K/BB rate.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Extreme groundball hitters like Nick Allen tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today. Nick Allen has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph to 89.8-mph in the last two weeks.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 5th-best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today. In the past week, Ronald Acuna Jr. has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .472.

When estimating his batting average talent, Trea Turner is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trea Turner is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Given Chris Sale's large platoon split, Trea Turner will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. Trea Turner will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today. Marcell Ozuna has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.5-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Michael Harris II will have an advantage in today's game. Michael Harris II has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Michael Harris II tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Johan Rojas will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale today... and the cherry on top, Sale has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball batters like Johan Rojas tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Sale. Johan Rojas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Johan Rojas has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 88.2-mph average to last season's 85.5-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Alex Verdugo will have an edge in today's game. Alex Verdugo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today. Alex Verdugo has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .239 figure is a good deal lower than his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Bryce Harper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Bryce Harper will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13.3% to 21.7%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the majors. Austin Riley is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.1°, Austin Riley has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.2° mark over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Bryson Stott has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage today. Bryson Stott has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.7% seasonal rate to 25% in the last two weeks. In the past 14 days, Bryson Stott's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 86.9-mph over the course of the season to 102.8-mph of late.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today. Ozzie Albies's launch angle this year (21.2°) is significantly better than his 18.2° mark last season. Despite posting a .290 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ozzie Albies has experienced some negative variance given the .032 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Kyle Schwarber will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the past 14 days, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99-mph over the course of the season to 104.7-mph of late.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Matt Olson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler today. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drake Baldwin in the 76th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Drake Baldwin has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Drake Baldwin will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.

Nick Castellanos's batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Considering Chris Sale's large platoon split, Nick Castellanos will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Nick Castellanos will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. J.T. Realmuto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and even better, Sale has a large platoon split. J.T. Realmuto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Because of Chris Sale's large platoon split, Edmundo Sosa will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Edmundo Sosa will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Edmundo Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 39.5% to 56.1%.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers. Given Chris Sale's large platoon split, Weston Wilson will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Weston Wilson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Weston Wilson has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .345 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .366.