Baltimore @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
BAL vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Strikeouts Thrown

Walker Buehler u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110)
Projection 3.9 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Walker Buehler to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.. Fenway Park ranks as the #26 ballpark in the majors for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Walker Buehler will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.. Walker Buehler's fastball velocity has decreased 2.2 mph this season (92.9 mph) below where it was last year (95.1 mph).. Considering the 0.53 discrepancy between Walker Buehler's 8.25 K/9 and his 7.72 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse going forward.
Total RBIs

Gunnar Henderson o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 18th-best batter in baseball.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. Gunnar Henderson will hold the platoon advantage over Walker Buehler in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the game.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer today.. Rafael Devers has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's game.. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Cedric Mullins are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler.. There has been a significant improvement in Cedric Mullins's launch angle from last season's 21.5° to 24.9° this season.
Outs Recorded

Walker Buehler u14.5 Outs Recorded (+135)
Projection 14.3 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Walker Buehler to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.. The Baltimore Orioles have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for batting average.. The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Fenway Park.. With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Walker Buehler will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
Total Bases

Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the game.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer today.. Rafael Devers has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Cedric Mullins o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's game.. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Cedric Mullins are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler.. There has been a significant improvement in Cedric Mullins's launch angle from last season's 21.5° to 24.9° this season.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jorge Mateo o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Jorge Mateo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.. In notching a .270 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Jorge Mateo is ranked in the 76th percentile.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rafael Devers o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-145)
Projection 2.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the game.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer today.. Rafael Devers has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-145)
Projection 2.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 18th-best batter in baseball.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. Gunnar Henderson will hold the platoon advantage over Walker Buehler in today's matchup.