Arizona @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hurlers. Brendan Donovan has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest LF fences today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks. This year, Brendan Donovan's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to measure power) grades out in the 20th percentile at 90.1 mph.

Ketel Marte projects as the 13th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ketel Marte is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Posting a .360 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Ketel Marte has performed in the 95th percentile for offensive skills. Sporting a .269 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ketel Marte is ranked in the 82nd percentile. In notching a .397 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Ketel Marte is ranked in the 99th percentile.

Alek Thomas will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Alek Thomas usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Sonny Gray. Alek Thomas's 92.1-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in MLB since the start of last season: 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Pavin Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray today. Pavin Smith has put up a .342 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Since the start of last season, Pavin Smith's 14.8% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 93rd percentile among his peers. Pavin Smith has notched a .386 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game. Corbin Carroll has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 7.3% rate last season to 17.1% this year. Corbin Carroll has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 15.1% to 19%. Utilizing Statcast data, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .279.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Ivan Herrera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. The Barrel% of Ivan Herrera has significantly improved, with an increase from 9% last year to 18.9% this year. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 46.6% to 64.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Gabriel Moreno hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Bats such as Gabriel Moreno with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sonny Gray who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Gabriel Moreno has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last season's 90-mph figure. Gabriel Moreno's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 41.8% to 48.9%.

Jordan Walker's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today. Jordan Walker's maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to assess power) has been 116.5 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 95th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Willson Contreras has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last year's 95.1-mph average. Posting a .352 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Willson Contreras is positioned in the 85th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge in today's matchup. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Nolan Arenado will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Posting a 1.35 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has displayed strong plate discipline, placing in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup. Alec Burleson will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.8-mph average to last year's 88.1-mph figure. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 13% to 18.1%. Posting a .361 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Geraldo Perdomo has performed in the 91st percentile for hitting ability. In notching a .293 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Geraldo Perdomo grades out in the 95th percentile. By putting up a 0.81 K/BB rate this year, Geraldo Perdomo has demonstrated good plate discipline, grading out in the 99th percentile.

Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup. Victor Scott II is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Victor Scott II is remarkably toolsy, ranking in the 100th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.99 ft/sec this year.

Pedro Pages will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Eugenio Suarez has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.4% rate last year to 17.4% this year. This season, Eugenio Suarez has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.2 mph compared to last year's 92.6 mph mark. Eugenio Suarez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (22°) is significantly better than his 18.8° mark last year.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. This season, Masyn Winn has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.6 mph compared to last year's 88 mph mark. Masyn Winn's launch angle this season (19.5°) is significantly higher than his 13° figure last year.