Arizona @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Home runs are generally less common at ballparks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all major league parks. Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Geraldo Perdomo's launch angle of late (6° over the last two weeks) is a significant dropoff from his 14.1° seasonal figure. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo's true offensive talent to be a .305, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .077 gap between that mark and his actual .382 wOBA.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences today. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Over the last week, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 91.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 86.3-mph over the last 14 days. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, decreasing from 19% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

Today, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.8% rate (91st percentile). Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ketel Marte today. Ketel Marte has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 11.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Over the past week, Ketel Marte's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.9%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.333) suggests that Ketel Marte has had some very good luck this year with his .394 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Corbin Carroll has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, improving his 7.3% rate last season to 17.1% this year. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph EV. Checking in at the 96th percentile, Corbin Carroll has notched a .402 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Hitters such as Nolan Arenado with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Merrill Kelly who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Nolan Arenado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last 14 days, Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 92.5-mph in recent games. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.9°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 23.7° figure over the last two weeks. Nolan Arenado has shown impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 89th percentile with a 1.37 K/BB rate.

Yohel Pozo will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage against Merrill Kelly today. Victor Scott II is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage today. Ranking in the 76th percentile, Victor Scott II has put up a .280 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today. Jordan Walker has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 5.6% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week. Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, compiling a .242 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .068 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today. Willson Contreras has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 95.9-mph in the last two weeks. Willson Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 95.1-mph figure.

Tim Tawa will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today's matchup. Tim Tawa hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Brendan Donovan will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Gabriel Moreno will have an advantage in today's matchup. Gabriel Moreno hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. In comparison to his 90-mph average last year, Gabriel Moreno's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.1 mph. Gabriel Moreno's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 41.8% to 48.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have an edge today. Extreme flyball batters like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore. Eugenio Suarez has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 11.4% rate last year to 17.4% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alec Burleson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's matchup. Alec Burleson is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage today.

Ivan Herrera's BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's game. The Barrel% of Ivan Herrera has significantly improved, with an increase from 9% last year to 18.9% this season. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 46.6% to 64.9%.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Masyn Winn has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 94.1-mph over the past two weeks.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge in today's game. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Randal Grichuk will have the upper hand today. Randal Grichuk's 10.8% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) ranks in the 75th percentile since the start of last season. Randal Grichuk's 90.5-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in baseball since the start of last season: 77th percentile. Randal Grichuk has recorded a .348 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile.

Pavin Smith has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Lawlar has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.