Chicago @ Miami picks
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CHC vs MIA Picks
MLB Picks
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Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Strikeouts Thrown


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Max Meyer is about the Marlins' only bright spot in the rotation, going 3-4 with a respectable 4.47 ERA. The number that really pops out is his 59 strikeouts in just 50 1/3 innings of work. The right-hander has electric stuff and he’s shown it at times by cashing the Over in Ks in four of his last six outings. Last time out, the 26-year-old struck out seven Tampa Bay Rays en route to the win in five innings of three-run baseball.
Total RBIs

Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Tucker projects as the 10th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Max Meyer throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an edge today.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
Total RBIs

Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last year to 17.3% this year.
Total RBIs

Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Max Meyer today.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.
Total RBIs

Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Kyle Stowers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Horton in today's game.. Kyle Stowers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Dansby Swanson o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Dansby Swanson has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.2% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week's worth of games.. Dansby Swanson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.9-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 95.9-mph.
Total RBIs

Ian Happ o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will get to bat from his good side against Max Meyer in this game.. Ian Happ's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 44% to 50%.
Total Bases

Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last year to 17.3% this year.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Graham Pauley o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-145)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, Graham Pauley will have an advantage today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Graham Pauley will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.268) implies that Graham Pauley has had some very poor luck this year with his .234 actual wOBA.
Total Bases

Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Tucker projects as the 10th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Max Meyer throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an edge today.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Derek Hill o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Derek Hill's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Extreme flyball hitters like Derek Hill are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cade Horton.. Derek Hill will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Derek Hill has hit 23.1 dingers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 81st percentile for power.