Texas @ New York picks

Cody Bellinger is batting .351 in May with four long balls, and he’s in the middle of a 13-game hitting streak. Belli is raking, and tonight’s matchup against Patrick Corbin favors him.

The Yankees are tied for first in the majors in OPS (.822) with that surging to .869 against southpaws. They plate a run in the first inning in 37% of their games — the sixth-highest mark. Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin has pitched to a 3.35 ERA across seven starts. That said, his xERA is significantly worse at 4.23 and his 5.71 ERA over the last four years has me expecting major regression. I also have low expectations for NY starter Will Warren who has a 4.61 ERA  and sits in the bottom 10th percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Trent Grisham as baseball's 17th-best home run hitter.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Among every team playing today, the 6th-worst infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Trent Grisham will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Joc Pederson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Warren in today's matchup.. Joc Pederson is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.. Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in Major League Baseball.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Aaron Judge will have the upper hand in today's game.. Bats such as Aaron Judge with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Patrick Corbin who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Batters such as Austin Wells with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Patrick Corbin who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Among every team playing today, the 6th-worst infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Austin Wells will hold that advantage today.. Austin Wells's launch angle this season (21.4°) is a considerable increase over his 16.9° figure last season.

As it relates to his home run talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today.. Despite posting a .274 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has had some very poor luck given the .066 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .340.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jake Burger ranks in the 87th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 26.500.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today.. Adolis Garcia has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.5-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 92.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Paul Goldschmidt will have an edge in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the 6th-worst infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today.. Wyatt Langford has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.7% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past 7 days.

Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams playing today.. Sam Haggerty's footspeed has gotten better this year. His 27.78 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.79 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Joc Pederson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Warren in today's matchup.. Joc Pederson is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.. Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.