Chicago @ Miami Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Hitters such as Derek Hill with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jameson Taillon who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Derek Hill will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. When it comes to his batting average, Derek Hill has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .229 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .261.

LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Otto Lopez will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Otto Lopez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences today. Otto Lopez's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88-mph EV last year has lowered to 85.7-mph. Otto Lopez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 41.5% to 35.6%.

LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the best among every team playing today. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today's game. Seiya Suzuki's launch angle of late (5.5° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit lower than his 16.7° seasonal mark.

Graham Pauley will have the handedness advantage against Jameson Taillon today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Graham Pauley will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. Nico Hoerner has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences today. The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the best among every team playing today. Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Javier Sanoja's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Javier Sanoja hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Javier Sanoja generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jameson Taillon. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Javier Sanoja will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In terms of his batting average, Javier Sanoja has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .237 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .263.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 10th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Kyle Tucker is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP. Extreme groundball bats like Kyle Tucker tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Weathers. In notching a .383 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Kyle Tucker is ranked in the 98th percentile for offensive skills.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Pete Crow-Armstrong stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 8% rate last year to 13.9% this season. Compared to his seasonal average of 22.7°, Pete Crow-Armstrong has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 32.8° angle over the past two weeks. Last year, Pete Crow-Armstrong had an average launch angle of 20.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 24.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Dansby Swanson is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Dansby Swanson will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Weathers in today's game. Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Dansby Swanson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.2% up to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Ian Happ is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 4th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park. Carson Kelly will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers today. In the last week's worth of games, Carson Kelly's 75% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.5%. Carson Kelly has recorded a .342 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 84th percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Justin Turner will have the upper hand in today's game. Justin Turner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Justin Turner are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Weathers. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 19.1% to 34%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.311) implies that Justin Turner has had bad variance on his side this year with his .233 actual wOBA.

Ronny Simon will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Ronny Simon has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph to 88.3-mph in the past week's worth of games. Ranking in the 91st percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.94 ft/sec this year, Ronny Simon is notably athletic.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Connor Norby is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Connor Norby will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past 7 days, Connor Norby's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.8% up to 23.1%. Sporting a .322 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Connor Norby is ranked in the 75th percentile for offensive ability. Ranking in the 87th percentile, Connor Norby sits with a .333 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Jameson Taillon in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Jesus Sanchez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jameson Taillon. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The 4th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Miguel Amaya will have the upper hand in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.8°, Miguel Amaya has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 29.5° mark over the last 7 days.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Agustin Ramirez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Agustin Ramirez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Agustin Ramirez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark. Agustin Ramirez has been hot recently, posting a .392 wOBA in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 77th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Kyle Stowers will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon in today's game. Kyle Stowers will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Kyle Stowers has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 11% rate last season to 23.6% this season.

Eric Wagaman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences today. Eric Wagaman will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.7°, Eric Wagaman has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 20.3° mark over the past two weeks.

Nick Fortes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nick Fortes has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 88.8-mph average to last season's 84.1-mph EV.

Hitting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Liam Hicks will have an edge in today's game. Liam Hicks will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Matt Mervis is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Matt Mervis will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Matt Mervis will hold that advantage today. Matt Mervis's launch angle of late (34.5° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 22.6° seasonal angle. Matt Mervis's footspeed has improved this season. His 24.56 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.18 ft/sec now.