Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh picks

We roll with the Reds here as they will have the pitching advantage with Nick Martinez going up against Bailey Falter. The Reds also have momentum on their side, winning five straight, while the Pirates are already playing out the rest of the season. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Martinez to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (12th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. PNC Park grades out as the #27 park in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Nick Martinez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Elly De La Cruz has strong power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter is a pitch-to-contact type (8th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.. Hitters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Falter who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Elly De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 93.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Nick Martinez.. Among all the teams playing today, the 7th-worst outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the league's 8th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez in today's matchup.. Among all the teams playing today, the 7th-worst outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Matt McLain will have an edge in today's matchup.. Matt McLain has big-time HR ability (85th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter doesn't generate many whiffs (14th percentile K%) — great news for McLain.. Matt McLain has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.9-mph average.. Matt McLain's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 46.5% on the season to 64% in the last 14 days.

When assessing his home run ability, Alexander Canario ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Among all the teams playing today, the 7th-worst outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.. Alexander Canario will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Over the past two weeks, Alexander Canario's 23.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.4%.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.347) provides evidence that Alexander Canario has had some very poor luck this year with his .302 actual wOBA.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Elly De La Cruz has strong power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter is a pitch-to-contact type (8th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.. Hitters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Falter who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Elly De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 93.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Martinez to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (12th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. It may be best to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 4th-best stadium in the league for batting average.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Among all the teams playing today, the 7th-worst outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Elly De La Cruz has strong power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter is a pitch-to-contact type (8th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.. Hitters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Falter who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Elly De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 93.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Connor Joe will have an edge today.