Houston @ Tampa Bay props

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Extreme groundball bats like Victor Caratini usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. Victor Caratini has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 91.5-mph. Victor Caratini has recorded a .332 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 76th percentile. Ranking in the 85th percentile, Victor Caratini has notched a .273 batting average since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Jake Meyers's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (18.3° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 8.6° seasonal angle. Grading out in the 91st percentile, Jake Meyers has put up a .301 batting average this year.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Chas McCormick has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.278) provides evidence that Chas McCormick has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .260 actual wOBA. Chas McCormick is in the 91st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (20.3% rate since the start of last season).

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Over the last 14 days, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 26.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 18.3°. Isaac Paredes has notched a .348 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 81st percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Isaac Paredes has notched a .367 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 84th percentile.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Zachary Dezenzo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 94.4-mph in recent games. Over the past 14 days, Zachary Dezenzo's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 61.2%. Zachary Dezenzo has been hot in recent games, notching a a 16.7% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Junior Caminero's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Junior Caminero will hold the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Junior Caminero tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Colton Gordon.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Altuve's true offensive talent to be a .322, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .041 difference between that mark and his actual .281 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Extreme groundball hitters like Jeremy Pena generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. Using Statcast data, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 87th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .355.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 15th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average talent. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Yandy Diaz will have an advantage in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Jose Caballero is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Jose Caballero will hold the platoon advantage over Colton Gordon in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage today. Jose Caballero has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.3-mph to 87.7-mph over the last 14 days.

Christian Walker is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Christian Walker has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 7 days. Christian Walker has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph figure. Over the past 14 days, Christian Walker has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 24.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.8°.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Kameron Misner will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Kameron Misner's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 91.3 mph to 83.6 mph.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Extreme flyball bats like Yainer Diaz tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. In the past 14 days, Yainer Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 96.8-mph recently.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Danny Jansen will have the upper hand today. Danny Jansen will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Danny Jansen has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph figure. Despite posting a .278 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Danny Jansen has been unlucky given the .037 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will get to bat from his strong side against Colton Gordon in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Taylor Walls's 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.3%. Taylor Walls has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .247 figure is quite a bit lower than his .297 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Christopher Morel will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Curtis Mead will have the handedness advantage over Colton Gordon today. Curtis Mead has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage in today's game. Curtis Mead has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .238 mark is considerably lower than his .297 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.