Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia picks
Citizens Bank Park
PIT vs PHI Picks
MLB Picks
Strikeouts Thrown

Zack Wheeler u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-104)
Projection 6.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
It is scheduled that we will see a Hitters Umpire (James Hoye) in charge of the strike zone today.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Zack Wheeler (35.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected batting order.. Zack Wheeler has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 11.48 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.71 — a 0.77 K/9 deviation.
Total RBIs

Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Zack Wheeler.. Bryan Reynolds has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Joey Bart o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Joey Bart is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Joey Bart pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Total RBIs

J.T. Realmuto o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. J.T. Realmuto will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. J.T. Realmuto has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.6% seasonal rate to 30% in the past week.
Outs Recorded

Carmen Mlodzinski u14.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Projection 12.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carmen Mlodzinski to throw 76 pitches in this matchup (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. It is scheduled that we will see a Hitters Umpire (James Hoye) in charge of the strike zone today.. The 9th-shallowest LF fences in the majors are found in Citizens Bank Park.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Oneil Cruz projects as the 7th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup.
Total Bases

Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Zack Wheeler.. Bryan Reynolds has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Matt Gorski o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-140)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. Matt Gorski has been hot lately, posting a a 14.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Matt Gorski has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, putting up a 20.4° angle.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Adam Frazier o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Adam Frazier will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup.. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. Last season, Adam Frazier had an average launch angle of 11.9° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 16.8°.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Oneil Cruz projects as the 7th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup.